原木期货日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market showed an expanded decline yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 763 yuan per cubic meter, down 15.5 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day The overall log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures contracts, the price of log 2603 decreased by 15.5 yuan to 763 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 1.99%; log 2605 decreased by 7.5 yuan to 782.5 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 0.95%; log 2607 decreased by 5.0 yuan to 796.0 yuan per cubic meter, with a decline of 0.62% The price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 770.0 yuan per cubic meter The main contract basis increased by 15.5 to -23.0 [1] - Among spot prices, the price of 3.9A medium radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 740 yuan per cubic meter, while the price of 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a growth rate of 1.33% Other spot prices remained unchanged [1] - The outer - market quotes of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly from 6.957 to 6.955, with a change of 0% The import theoretical cost decreased slightly from 753.77 yuan to 753.51 yuan, with a change of 0% [1] Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume in December was 204.0 million cubic meters, an increase of 14.8 million cubic meters compared to November, with a growth rate of 7.82% The number of ships at the port increased from 49.0 to 55.0, with a growth rate of 12.24% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 257 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 4.46% The inventory in Shandong was 192.0 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 2.04% The inventory in Jiangsu was 41.08 million cubic meters, a decrease of 7.4 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 15.18% [1][2] Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of January 16, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 6.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.41 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 7% The daily average out - bound volume in Shandong was 3.24 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.45 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 16% The daily average out - bound volume in Jiangsu was 2.28 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a decline of 3% [2] Forecast of Log Arrivals - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 15, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 67% The arrival volume was about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]