广发期货《能源化工》日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Overall, the market is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in demand [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The mainland supply remains high, traditional demand is weak, and there is short - term pressure, but the long - term pressure may ease. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound [2]. Natural Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are falling, but considering Thailand's approaching low - production period, the raw material decline may be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but its own driving force is limited. Styrene is strong due to export and device issues, driving up the pure benzene price. Strategies include focusing on short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be stable and weak, and PVC is under pressure but has limited downward space due to cost support [5]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with supply remaining high and demand being cautious [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and glass is also expected to weaken, both can be treated bearishly [7]. Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices are affected by news, and the upside space is limited. Brent crude may oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [8]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in some contracts and inventories. The downstream PDH开工率 has decreased [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be bullish in the medium term. PTA, short - fiber, and polyester bottle - chip follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory significantly [13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Futures Prices: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined, with L2605 down 0.83% [1]. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices, such as华东PP拉丝现货价格 and华北LLDPE现货价格, decreased [1]. - Spreads: PP59价差 increased by 13.16%, while LP05价差 decreased by 18.50% [1]. - Inventory and开工率: PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48%, and PP装置开工率 increased slightly by 0.20% [1]. Methanol - Futures and Spot Prices: MA2605 and MA2609 declined, and most spot prices also decreased [2]. - Inventory: Methanol企业库存 increased by 0.73%, while methanol港口库存 decreased by 6.63% [2]. - 开工率: Upstream domestic企业开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased significantly by 11.22% [2]. Natural Rubber - Prices: Yunnan国营全乳胶 and other prices declined, such as a 1.27% drop in Yunnan国营全乳胶 [3]. - Production and开工率: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39%, and the开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased [3]. - Inventory: The Chinese natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, especially the dark - colored rubber [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: Brent原油 and other upstream prices changed slightly, while pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends, with styrene being stronger [4]. - Inventory: Pure苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 8.3%, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 7.1% [4]. - 开工率: Asian pure苯开工率 decreased by 0.9%, and国内苯乙烯开工率 remained stable [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: Shandong 32%液碱折百价 and华东电石法PVC市场价 decreased [5]. - 开工率: The caustic soda行业开工率 and PVC总开工率 increased slightly [5]. - Inventory:液碱华东库存 decreased by 3.2%, and PVC总社会库存 increased by 2.8% [5]. Urea - Prices: Urea期货 prices showed different trends, and spot prices were slightly loose [6]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea日产量 reached a high of 200,000 tons, and the厂内库存 decreased by 3.53% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices: Glass2605 and玻璃2609 declined, and soda ash2609 decreased slightly [7]. - 开工率 and Production: Soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93%, and its weekly production increased by 8.11% [7]. - Inventory: Glass厂库 decreased by 5.69%, and soda ash厂库 increased by 4.25% [7]. Crude Oil - Prices: Brent原油 decreased by 0.3%, WTI原油 was stable, and SC原油 decreased by 2.81% [8]. - Spreads: Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, changed slightly [8]. - Refined Oil: NYM RBOB and other refined oil prices had different changes [8]. LPG - Prices: Most LPG futures contracts declined, and the华南现货(民用气) and可交割现货 prices dropped to zero [11]. - Inventory: LPG炼厂库容比 decreased by 2.77%, and LPG港口库存 decreased by 4.89% [11]. - 开工率: The upstream主营炼厂开工率 increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - Prices: PX, PTA, and MEG prices had minor changes, and some polyester product prices increased slightly [13]. - 开工率: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.7%, and PTA开工率 decreased by 1.7% [13]. - Inventory: MEG港口库存 decreased by 0.9% [13].