沪铜产业日报-20260120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support of tight ore for copper prices remains. The supply is relatively sufficient, while the demand is cautious due to the off - season and high copper prices before. The refined copper social inventory is accumulating seasonally. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,970 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 218,898 lots, up 1,466 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 51,902 lots, up 44 lots. The LME copper inventory is 147,425 tons, up 3,850 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,550 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 148,193 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,725 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,615 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 25.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is - 505 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 spread is 67.55 dollars/ton, up 6.03 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 90,910 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan; in Yunnan is 91,610 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment completion is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment completion is 82,788 billion yuan, up 419.71 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810 million pieces, up 418 million pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.14%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.24%, down 0.11%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 24.72%, down 0.0582%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.55, down 0.0687 [2] 7. Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structure optimization and upgrading. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September. The consumer goods trade - in policy promoted high - quality durable consumer goods into residents' lives. At the end of 2025, the number of household cars per 100 households reached 52.9, an increase of 1.7 compared with the end of the previous year. The GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase over the previous year. The per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% over the previous year. In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The investment growth in information technology driven by AI is an important driving force for the global economy. Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [2]