瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a state of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,950 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 332,750 lots, down 4,347 lots; the position of the alumina main contract was 502,994 lots, up 12,005 lots [2] - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 32,750 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory was 217,143 tons, up 21,062 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,158.50 US dollars/ton, up 24.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 485,000 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 55,719 lots, up 3,251 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.58, down 0.10 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] - The position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,520 lots, down 685 lots; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 74,160 tons, up 872 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai Aluminum were 139,951 tons, down 1,524 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,850 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,680 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,565 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,830 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,085 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.60 US dollars/ton, up 6.75 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina was - 106 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05 percentage points [2] - The alumina output was 813.80 tons, up 27.30 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 tons, down 24.27 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 tons, down 11.40 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The alumina export volume was 21.00 tons, up 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 tons, up 8.34 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 71.20 tons, up 1.40 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,536.20 tons, up 12.00 tons [2] - The primary aluminum export volume was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product output was 593.10 tons, up 23.70 tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 tons, down 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54.00 tons, down 3.00 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The aluminum alloy output was 173.90 tons, unchanged; the automobile output was 341.20 tons, down 10.70 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days was 23.30%, up 0.18 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 40 days was 18.63%, down 0.11 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21.05%, down 0.0405 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.81, up 0.0807 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structural optimization and upgrading. Service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate of service retail sales has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September [2] - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The per capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% compared with the previous year [2] - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year [2] - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the United States, the euro area, and Japan in 2026 [2] - Five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2]