瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices closed collectively lower, with the three major indices opening higher and closing lower. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below 4,100 points in the morning. Small and medium-cap stocks were weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks, and the Shanghai 50 was the most resilient among the four broad-based indices. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly. Most industry sectors rose, with the petroleum and petrochemical, and building materials sectors leading the gains, while the communication sector fell sharply. [3] - Overseas, on January 17, the United States imposed additional tariffs on eight European countries over the Greenland issue, intensifying market distrust of US dollar assets and further weakening the US dollar index. Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, China's GDP further declined in the fourth quarter, but the annual economic growth target of 5% was still successfully achieved. In December, except for the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size, fixed asset investment, social retail sales, and exports all declined year-on-year compared to November. [3] - Among the companies that have released their 2025 performance forecasts, only one-third have reported positive news. However, it is worth noting that most of the companies with positive profit forecasts are concentrated in high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence. Overall, there are still many positive factors in the A-share market. Although many economic indicators further declined in December, industrial production has grown steadily driven by industries representing new productive forces such as aerospace and artificial intelligence, which has weakened the negative impact of the decline in other economic indicators on the market to a certain extent. [3] - Since listed companies' annual report performance forecasts also echo this phenomenon, and listed companies related to aerospace and artificial intelligence have the largest weight in the CSI 500, they have a significant pulling effect on the CSI 500 index. Finally, driven by the foreign exchange settlement needs of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. Coupled with overseas risk events weakening the value of the US dollar, the strong RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. The spring market is still advancing. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The latest prices of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2603) and the IH (Shanghai 50) main contract (2603) are 4,708.6 and 3,075.4 respectively, with a decline of 18.4 and 3.0 respectively. The prices of the IF and IH sub-main contracts (2602) also declined. The latest prices of the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2603) and the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2603) are 8,248.8 and 8,120.8 respectively, with a decline of 41.0 and 84.6 respectively. The prices of the IC and IM sub-main contracts (2602) also declined. [2] - The spreads between different contracts, such as the IF-IH, IC-IF, IM-IC, etc., also showed certain changes, with most spreads declining. The spreads between different quarters and the current month of each contract also changed, with some showing an upward trend and some showing a downward trend. [2] Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in the IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, while the net position of the top 20 in the IH contract increased. [2] Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The A-share trading volume was 28,042.35 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance was 27,231.75 billion yuan. The northbound trading volume was 3,237.70 billion yuan. [2] Market Sentiment - The proportion of rising stocks decreased, and the Shibor increased. The closing prices and implied volatilities of IO at-the-money call and put options also changed. The 20-day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased, and the trading volume PCR and position PCR both decreased. [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The scores of the entire A-share market, technical aspect, and capital aspect all declined. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at constant prices. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year-on-year. National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year. Social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. [2] - In January 2026, the 1-year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable for eight consecutive months since May 2025. [2] - As of January 20, 2026, 495 A-share listed companies had disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 168 reporting positive news (104 with pre-increases, 35 with slight increases, 27 with turnarounds, and 2 with continued profits), a positive news ratio of 33.94%. 322 reported negative news, and 5 had uncertain performance. [2]