瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260120

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. The overall inventory accumulation amplitude has little change compared to the previous period. African rubber accounts for most of the overseas ship - to - port arrivals. The total inventory keeps increasing, and the bonded warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation amplitude has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. - In terms of demand, last week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production scheduling is expected to be basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 yuan in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 178,976 lots, down 7,467 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract are 63,724 lots, down 2,101 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 45,563 lots, up 2,214 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,160 lots, up 2,031 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 56,750 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,895 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,280 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 625 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.05 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.92 Thai baht/kg, up 0.27 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.17%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.88%, down 0.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.08%, up 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.08%, up 0.24 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (January 18 - 24, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In most areas north of the equator, including western Malaysia and southern Indonesia, the rainfall was at a low level, slightly increasing the impact on rubber tapping. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].