瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, 2026, the HC2605 contract saw a decline with reduced positions. The hot - rolled coil production has been increasing for four consecutive weeks, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.77%. Terminal demand is steadily increasing, and inventory continues to decrease. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but the decline in furnace materials exerts pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 - axis. The view is that the market is oscillating with a downward bias, and risk control is needed [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,276 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract is 1,486,145 lots, down 15,864 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 13,902 lots, up 5,130 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 19 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,602 tons, down 4,460 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 165 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 34 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 793 yuan/wet ton, down 17 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 165.5081 million tons, up 2.7087 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 404,800 tons, down 35,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.502 million tons, up 43,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.4931 million tons, up 85,600 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The hot - rolled coil production of sample steel mills is 3.0836 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils of sample steel mills is 78.77%, up 0.72 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 765,300 tons, down 7,900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.858 million tons, down 50,100 tons. The domestic crude steel production is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly production of air conditioners is 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly production of household refrigerators is 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly production of household washing machines is 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Four departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to establish a special guarantee plan with a scale of 500 billion yuan through the National Financing Guarantee Fund to be implemented over two years. The plan will provide guarantees for eligible small, medium and micro - enterprises' private investment loans, supporting both long - term loans for scenario expansion and upgrading, and production and operation activities such as plant renovation, store decoration, and working capital turnover, with policy support in terms of risk ratio, compensation ceiling, guarantee amount, and guarantee fee [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an updated report on the World Economic Outlook, raising the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%. It also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan in 2026 [2]