瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is generally in a weak and volatile state. The current spot price is supported by the shutdown of oil mills, but the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports from Canada and Australia strengthen the long - term supply pressure, leading to market trading of the expectation of increased long - term supply [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, and the basis remains high, which supports the price. However, the expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and increased imports also increase the long - term supply pressure, causing the recent trend to be weaker than that of soybean and palm oil with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8,948 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 639 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars, and that of the active domestic rapeseed contract is 5,530 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 27 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 53 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 832 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 101 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 253,127 lots, down 469 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 1,001,168 lots, down 12,349 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are - 20,118 lots, up 639 lots; that of rapeseed meal are - 263,240 lots, up 9,509 lots. The warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 1,935 sheets, down 7 sheets; that of rapeseed meal are 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,886.25 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7,648.46 yuan/ton, up 11.47 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and consumption: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region is 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 14.1 million tons, down 1.6 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal in the South China region is 27 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.55 million tons, up 0.37 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and sales: The monthly production of feed is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5,738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.07%, down 2.17 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 20.07%, down 2.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.36%, down 0.87 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 16.36%, down 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - International market: On January 19th, ICE rapeseed futures showed mixed trends. The March contract fell 0.50 Canadian dollars to 639 Canadian dollars per ton. The high expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest continues to restrain international soybean prices. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record, which is positive for US soybeans [2]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic oil mills are still shut down, supporting the current spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations and the purchase of 60,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed by China increase the long - term supply pressure [2].