瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rate increase has not materialized, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices; the geopolitical situation may improve, and the freight rate has dropped significantly. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1112.600, down 16.2; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1317.4, down 4.3 [1] - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 204.80, down 19.00; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 355.30, down 28.50 [1] - EC contract basis: 841.59, up 19.60 [1] - EC main contract open interest: not shown in a clear format in the text [1] - SCFIS (European Line) weekly: 1954.19, down 2.10; SCFIS (US West Line) weekly: 1305.27, down 18.71 [1] - SCFI (composite index) weekly: not shown in a clear format; CCFI (composite index) weekly: 1209.85, up 14.96; CCFI (European Line) weekly: 1582.60, up 14.85 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1567.00, up 83.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1458.00, up 63.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panama - type ship): 0.00, no change; Average charter price (Cape - type ship): 17000.00, down 2627.00 [1] 3.2 Industry News - IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the US, the euro area and Japan in 2026. The report pointed out that the growth of information technology investment driven by artificial intelligence is becoming an important driving force for the global economy [1] - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss issues such as US President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on European countries that oppose the US getting Greenland, and evaluate possible counter - measures. The EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [1] 3.3 Market Analysis - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) fell collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed down 1.44%, and the far - month contracts fell between - 1% and - 1% [1] - Since April 1, 2026, all photovoltaic - related products on the list will no longer enjoy the VAT export tax - rebate preferential policy. The cancellation of the full - amount tax rebate for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but weakening the support on the spot side [1] - China's manufacturing PMI data in December showed a slight recovery, generally in line with seasonal laws. The new export order index rebounded to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1] - In the spot freight rate, the fourth - week quotation for large containers ranged from 2600 to 3200 US dollars. Maersk's fourth - week opening price for large containers was 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week [1] - Zelensky said during a visit to Cyprus that the negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and there is hope to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved [1] - Inflation pressure in the euro area has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest - rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year. The CPI in the euro area in December returned to the medium - term target level set by the European Central Bank [1] 3.4 Key Points to Watch - UK December CPI monthly rate at 15:00 on January 21 [1] - UK December retail price index monthly rate at 15:00 on January 21 [1] - UK January CBI industrial order difference at 19:00 on January 21 [1]