韩流佐酒，海特真露的确定性与可能性

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, setting a target price of ₩22,000, while the current price is ₩17,970 [2]. Core Insights - Hite Jinro holds a dominant position in the Korean soju market with nearly 70% market share, demonstrating resilience in sales and stable operating profit margins despite industry challenges [4][13]. - The company is expected to implement a 5% price increase in the soju segment in Q2 2026, which, combined with economies of scale, could push operating profit margins closer to 13% [4]. - The overseas expansion strategy, particularly with the upcoming Vietnam factory and entry into the Indian market, is anticipated to drive significant revenue growth, overcoming domestic market saturation [5][33]. - The report highlights the defensive characteristics of Hite Jinro's business model, with strong brand loyalty and pricing power in the soju segment, while the beer segment faces challenges from declining demand and competition [40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hite Jinro was formed through the merger of Hite and Jinro, creating the largest beverage company in Korea with a market share of approximately 50% in the alcohol sector [24]. - The company’s revenue structure is heavily reliant on soju, which contributes about 58% of total revenue, while beer contributes around 32% [27]. Market Analysis - The Korean alcohol market is characterized by a unique dominance of soju, which accounts for 42% of the market, contrasting with global trends where beer typically holds a larger share [8]. - The beer market in Korea is experiencing a decline, with a projected drop in sales of about 12% over three years, driven by consumer preference for lower-priced products [14][15]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record operating profit of approximately ₩208 billion in 2024, with revenue growth slightly exceeding market expectations [34]. - Future projections estimate revenues of ₩25,960 billion, ₩26,580 billion, and ₩27,340 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be ₩1,060 billion, ₩1,230 billion, and ₩1,290 billion respectively [41]. Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a production facility in Vietnam is expected to enhance cost competitiveness and facilitate market penetration in Southeast Asia, with an anticipated annual capacity of 50 million bottles [32]. - The company is also entering the Indian market, which presents a significant growth opportunity despite regulatory challenges and the need for consumer education [33].