安踏体育：4Q25 营运表现点评：FILA 稳健增长，2026 展望谨慎运动大年将加大投入-20260121

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ANTA Sports [2][5] Core Insights - ANTA Brand experienced its first low-single-digit negative sell-through growth in 4Q25 after 11 consecutive quarters of positive growth, with offline sales declining and the children's category being a significant drag, although it still achieved a full-year low-single-digit growth target [3][10] - FILA Brand achieved mid-single-digit sell-through growth in both 4Q25 and for the full year 2025, with discounts deepening year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [3][10] - Management is cautious about 2026, planning increased investment in brand and marketing due to major sporting events such as the Milan Winter Olympics, World Cup, and Asian Games [3][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 78.26 billion, RMB 85.00 billion, and RMB 92.04 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 8.6%, and 8.3% respectively [5][12] - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is projected at RMB 12.98 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 16.24 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [5][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 16.0x, 14.5x, and 12.8x [5][12] Brand Strategy - ANTA Brand will focus on core positioning in running, training, and basketball, with continuous technology iterations for its running series [4][11] - FILA continues to emphasize product quality, achieving top sales in categories like down jackets and dad shoes during major sales events [4][11] - Descente has entered a steady growth phase, with over 240 stores and a stable store network, while KOLON's growth is driven by core stores and community activities [4][11]