农产品早报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short term due to limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [2] - Starch prices are expected to be moderately strong in the short term with stable supply and demand, and long - term focus should be on downstream consumption rhythm [2] - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices, while long - term prices may decline if the global sugar surplus intensifies [6] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season [7] - For eggs, the存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The pace of chicken culling will affect the egg price in the second quarter [11] - Apple prices show a pattern where good - quality apples are stable and lower - quality apples' prices are loosening. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [17] - For pigs, there is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and the futures price increase depends on further production and inventory reduction [17] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, corn prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly, and starch prices in some regions remained unchanged. The corn basis decreased by 9, and the starch basis increased by 5 [1] - Analysis: Short - term corn prices are supported by limited supply increase and downstream stocking expectations. Starch prices are expected to be moderately strong with stable supply and demand [2] Sugar - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, sugar prices in some regions decreased by 20, and the basis increased by 41 [5] - Analysis: The international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices, while long - term prices may decline if the global sugar surplus intensifies [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 50, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 153 [7] - Analysis: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term buying due to low initial inventory, expanding textile production, and favorable consumption policies [7] Eggs - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, egg prices in some regions remained stable or increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 25 [10] - Analysis: The存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The pace of chicken culling will affect the egg price in the second quarter [11] Apples - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 108 (unit not specified) [16][17] - Analysis: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still light. Good - quality apples are stable, and lower - quality apples' prices are loosening. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [17] Pigs - Price Data: From January 14 - 20, 2026, pig prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis increased by 105 [17] - Analysis: There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and the futures price increase depends on further production and inventory reduction [17]