广发早知道：汇总版-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - Alumina: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - Coking Coal: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - Palm Oil: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - News: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - Funding: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - Operation Suggestion: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - Funding: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - Policy: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - Operation Suggestion: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Review: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - Outlook: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - Logic: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - Operation Suggestion: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Spot: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - Macro: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - Demand: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - Logic: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - Spot: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - Supply: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - Logic: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - Operation Suggestion: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - Spot: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - Supply: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - Demand: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - Operation Suggestion: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - Supply: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - Demand: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - Operation Suggestion: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - Spot: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - Supply: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - Demand: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - Spot: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - Supply: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - Demand: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - Logic: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - Spot: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - Supply: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - Demand: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - Operation Suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - Raw Materials: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - Supply: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - Operation Suggestion: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - Supply: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - Demand: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - Logic: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - Spot Price: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - Demand: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - Logic: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - Spot Price: The spot price was stable [53]. - Supply: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - Demand: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - Spot: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - Cost and Profit: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - Supply: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - Demand: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - Logic: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - Operation Suggestion: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Spot: The spot price declined [58]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - Demand: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - Logic: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - Operation Suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - Spot: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - Supply: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - Demand: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - Logic: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - Spot: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - Demand: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - Logic: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - Spot: The spot price was stable [66]. - Cost and Profit: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - Spot: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - Cost: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - Spot Market: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - Outlook: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - Market Data: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - Outlook: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - Spot Price: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - Outlook: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - Analysis: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - Fundamentals: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - Analysis: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - Outlook: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - Spot Market: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - Supply: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - Demand: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - Analysis: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - Fundamentals: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - Outlook: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the