建信期货集运指数日报-20260121

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 21, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of reaching a peak, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling after rising, and the SCFIS index also dropping slightly. Multiple shipping companies have started to lower their quotes for late January, indicating that the inflection point of the spot high has emerged. Considering the frequent resumption of shipping by airlines despite the Red Sea situation, it is expected that normal passage will likely resume this year. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [8]. Summary by Section 1.行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and started to fall, with a 2.5% drop to $1676/TEU. The SCFIS index also declined slightly. Shipping companies such as Maersk and OOCL have lowered their quotes for late January, suggesting that the spot high has passed [8]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the April contract during the off - season [8]. 2.行业要闻 - Market situation from January 12 - 16: In response to the "Spring Festival" holiday in the next month, the cargo volume increased slightly, while the freight rates on ocean routes and the comprehensive index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 4.4% to 1574.12 points [9]. - European routes: The Sentix euro - zone investor confidence index in January was - 1.8, better than expected. The shipping demand was stable with a slight increase, the average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port was nearly full, and the freight rate dropped slightly, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports falling 2.5% to $1676/TEU [9]. - Mediterranean routes: Similar to European routes, the spot market booking price dropped more than that of European routes, with the Shanghai Port's export freight rate to Mediterranean base ports falling 7.7% to $2983/TEU [9]. - North American routes: The number of first - time unemployment benefit applicants in the US in the second week of January was 198,000, better than expected. The shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, the average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port was over 90%, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The Shanghai Port's export freight rates to the US West and East base ports were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively, with a 1.1% drop and a 1.2% increase respectively [10]. - Policy news: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that the adjustment of the contract months of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures will be implemented from February 10, 2026, adding EC2605, EC2607, EC2609, and not adding EC2603. On March 31, 2026, EC2703 will be added [10]. - International news: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, but there are differences between Netanyahu and Trump. The US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen on January 12. The Houthi rebels warned Saudi Arabia against military action, and the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council announced the establishment of a supreme military council [10]. 3.数据概览 3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS for European routes (base ports) on January 19 was 1954.19, down 0.1% from January 12 [12]. - SCFIS for US West routes (base ports) on January 19 was 1305.27, down 1.4% from January 12 [12]. 3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The trading data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures on January 20 is presented in Table 1, including details such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change for different contracts [6]. 3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, the trend of the main and secondary main contracts of Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][18][22]