集运早报-20260121

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The 02 contract's logic deviates little. For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping scale may increase, potentially weakening the price decline slope in March. The 04 contract's valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to potential correction opportunities (look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the oversold period when the spot price bottoms out). The export tax - rebate adjustment is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is recommended to go short on the 10 contract on rallies (currently, the 10 contract's valuation is neutral with limited downward space) [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - For EC2602, the closing price is 1710.0, with a decline of 0.25%, a basis of 246.4, a trading volume of 1710, and an open interest of 5575 with a decrease of 864 [2] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1112.6, with a decline of 1.73%, a basis of 843.8, a trading volume of 30586, and an open interest of 41811 with a decrease of 777 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1317.4, with a decline of 0.05%, a basis of 639.0, a trading volume of 2723, and an open interest of 3927 with a decrease of 273 [2] - For EC2608, the closing price is 1467.9, with an increase of 0.61%, a basis of 488.5, a trading volume of 112, and an open interest of 1351 with a decrease of 15 [2] - For EC2610, the closing price is 1052.9, with a decline of 0.11%, a basis of 903.5, a trading volume of 2144, and an open interest of 8552 with an increase of 366 [2] - The difference between EC2502 - 2604 is 597.4, with a daily increase of 15.3 and a weekly increase of 109.9; the difference between EC2504 - 2606 is - 204.8, with a daily decrease of 19.0 and a weekly decrease of 11.2 [2] Spot Index Data - The SCHIS (European Line) spot index on January 12, 2026, is 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94% and a two - month - on - month increase of 3.05% [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 16, 2026, is 1676 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 2.50% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK's opening price is 2750 (a week - on - week increase of 100), PA is 2400 (YML has two special prices of 2250), OA is 2700 - 2900 dollars, with a central price of 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4] - In Week 5, MSK's opening price is 2450 (a week - on - week decrease of 300), PA is 2400 (special price is 2200), OA is 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 6 is 2000/2100 dollars, a week - on - week decrease of 400 dollars, exceeding market expectations. YML's quote for early February is 2450 (special price is 2250), with a downward adjustment expected [4] Related News - On January 5, CMA CGM decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [5]