建信期货生猪日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, consumption is increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and the spot price will fluctuate. On the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, the pressure of second - fattening is still relatively high compared to the same period, the current epidemic situation is sporadic seasonally without continuous spread, and after the Spring Festival, it enters the off - season of consumption, so the 03 contract will mainly fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 20th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,745 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,530 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53% compared to the previous day. The total position of the index decreased by 12,586 lots to 344,360 lots [6]. - Spot Market: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 13.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [6]. - Supply - side: Before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment increased periodically. Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is higher than the same period last year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. Currently, the slaughter in the north is normal, while in the south, the quantity is controlled to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7]. - Demand - side: Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The demand for curing and enema is near the end, the terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On January 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 186,600 heads, a decrease of 5,000 heads compared to the previous day, flat week - on - week, and a decrease of 19,000 heads month - on - month [7]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, an increase of 62 yuan/head compared to the previous week [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - Cost and Profit: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening externally purchased piglets to 125kg and then slaughtering was 12.24 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 yuan/kg. As of January 15th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was +25.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.8 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 100.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 29.3 yuan/head [16]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85kg, an increase of 0.31kg compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a decrease of 1.33kg compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and an increase of 5.89kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 4.79% [16].