建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260121

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 21, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 6720 | 6706 | 6720 | 6666 | -35 | -0.52 | 71 | 29 | | Plastic 2605 | 6660 | 6640 | 6664 | 6609 | -60 | -0.90 | 495212 | 9748 | | Plastic 2609 | 6702 | 6664 | 6702 | 6632 | -61 | -0.91 | 51049 | 2270 | | PP2701 | 6585 | 6459 | 6585 | 6447 | -41 | -0.63 | 586 | 79 | | PP2605 | 6488 | 6461 | 6490 | 6429 | -47 | -0.72 | 466241 | -4253 | | PP2609 | 6527 | 6492 | 6527 | 6461 | -49 | -0.75 | 85985 | -3354 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6640 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.9%), with a trading volume of 380,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 9808 lots to 495,272 lots. PP2605 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan, a decline of 0.72%, with a decrease in open interest of 4253 lots to 466,200 lots [6]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply pressure of polypropylene has been relieved due to an increase in temporary maintenance, but it will increase slightly next week as maintenance decreases. For plastics, the reduction in loss volume and the concentrated arrival of imported cargoes have increased the overall supply pressure compared to the previous period. On the demand side, downstream resistance to high prices has increased. The demand for mulch film has driven a slight increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, while the operating rates of other sectors have remained basically stable. Some downstream factories are rushing to fulfill annual orders, but the orders lack sustainability under the background of high raw material prices. Small-scale enterprises may reduce production or enter the holiday period in advance [6]. - With the geopolitical events calming down and the US lifting some sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, and the start of Venezuelan crude oil sales, the cost support has weakened as the marginal negative factors of crude oil emerge. Coupled with the marginal weakening of the supply-demand structure, polyolefins have experienced a weak correction [6]. 5. Industry News - On January 20, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous working day, while the inventory in the same period last year was 495,000 tons [7]. - The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 6570 - 6900 yuan/ton, in East China was 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6120 - 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. There was a game between supply and demand in the market. The downstream demand enthusiasm had slightly improved, and the production enterprises' offers were stable with a slight increase. The actual orders of the major manufacturers in the auction had a slight premium, but the overall market sentiment remained cautious [7]. - The PP market continued to be weak. The mainstream price of drawn wire in North China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6570 yuan/ton [7]. 6. Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][11][16] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][13][15][17][18][19]