建信期货沥青日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the positive factors of asphalt raw materials are gradually digested, the supply and demand return to an equilibrium level, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of oil prices [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2603, the opening price was 3,142 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,124 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.03%, and the trading volume was 1.189 million lots. For BU2604, the opening price was 3,166 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,152 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,138 yuan/ton, the change was 0, and the trading volume was 0.113 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions decreased, while those in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Due to cooling and rainy and snowy weather, the rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline [6] - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, Shengxing Petrochemical planned to switch to asphalt production on the 16th, but Qilu Petrochemical switched to residue production on the 15th, and the operating load rate of asphalt plants next week is expected to remain basically the same. On the demand side, cold air will strengthen in the next ten days, with obvious rain and snow in the Huanghuai to the Yangtze River region. Road construction projects in East and Central China may gradually enter the final or suspension stage. Winter storage contracts in the north will continue to arrive, and overall demand is expected to fluctuate little. With the seasonal decline in terminal demand and the lack of new positive factors, the sentiment in the asphalt market may remain cautious, and speculative demand is expected to increase limitedly [7] 3.2 Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,000 - 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, providing no guidance for the asphalt spot market. The obvious temperature drop in Shandong and surrounding areas in recent days led to a decrease in terminal rigid demand, weakening spot transactions, and some brand traders lowered their quotes, driving down the market price [8] - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Brent crude oil futures closed lower after intraday fluctuations, and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, failing to provide strong support for the asphalt spot market. The rain and snow in East China affected terminal demand, with limited downstream purchases, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weak, so the mainstream spot transaction price remained stable [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][19][22]