《有色》日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term price is volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short - term. Considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center will gradually rise due to supply - side capital expenditure constraints. In the short - term, the price is strong due to global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. But real terminal demand is weak. As market speculation cools and tariff expectations ease, the price may return to fundamental pricing, with support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. Zinc - Market speculation has eased, and short - term sharp increases have suppressed demand, leading to price fluctuations. The tight ore supply supports the price, but imported ore may ease the short - term supply. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support at around 23800 [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level shock pattern in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, mainly trading around macro and Indonesian ore - end RKAB quota rhythm, with the main reference range of 138000 - 148000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main reference range of 13800 - 14600, affected by raw - material news and cost support [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has support at around 48000 yuan/ton. During the cooling period, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders, and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to production changes on the demand side [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but beware of recent price fluctuations and liquidity risks [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose 1.31%, LME 0 - 3 spread fell 58.84%, and import loss fell 28.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - December tin - ore imports increased 16.81%, and refined - tin imports increased 29.54%. SHEF and social inventories increased significantly [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper fell 0.21%, and the import loss increased [2]. Fundamental Data - December electrolytic - copper production increased 6.80%, and imports decreased 4.02%. Social and SHFE inventories increased [2]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot fell 0.33%, and the import loss decreased [4]. Fundamental Data - December refined - zinc production decreased 7.24%, and imports decreased 51.94%. Social and LME inventories increased [4]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum fell 0.80%, and the electrolytic - aluminum import loss increased [7]. Fundamental Data - December alumina production increased 1.08%, and domestic electrolytic - aluminum production increased 3.97%. Social and LME inventories changed [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 fell 0.21%, and the refined - waste price difference changed [9]. Fundamental Data - December regenerated - aluminum alloy ingot production decreased 6.16%, and the开工 rate decreased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.31%, and the import profit increased [10]. Fundamental Data - December Chinese refined - nickel production increased 26.10%, and imports increased 84.63%. SHFE and social inventories increased [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) rose 1.06%, and the raw - material price changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - December Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased 0.92%, and exports increased 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - N - type re - feedstock average price rose 0.45%, and the futures price rose 0.39% [13]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production decreased 9.66%, and silicon - wafer production increased 2.95% [13]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the futures price fell 1.13% [15]. Fundamental Data - January national industrial - silicon production is expected to decline, and Xinjiang's production may increase. Social inventories increased slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose 0.99%, and the futures price of the main contract LC2605 rose 8.99% [16]. Fundamental Data - December lithium - carbonate production increased 4.04%, and imports increased 8.7%. Total inventories decreased 12.23% [16].