Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may break through 4,100 ringgit and potentially reach 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may try to break through 8,750 yuan and possibly reach 9,000 yuan [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is affected by the US - EU situation and supply - demand factors, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed situation with both support and pressure [1]. - Rapeseed oil is affected by market news and palm oil trends, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from negative market sentiment, maintaining a low - level oscillation. Xinjiang cotton has a short - term supply pressure, but the cotton enterprises' de - stocking and downstream demand support the price. Short - term cotton prices may continue to adjust [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to sufficient supply. International sugar production in India is strong, and Thailand's production is slow. Domestic sugar is in the end of the stocking period, with the price expected to maintain a low - level and weak oscillation [3]. Red Dates - Affected by weak demand and pessimistic market sentiment, red date futures prices are under pressure. With the industry's active de - capacity, the inventory pressure is postponed, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Apples - The apple market has a slow de - stocking progress in cold storage, and the sales area has problems such as overstocking. The futures market has fallen from a high level due to weak demand. After the Spring Festival, the scale and structure of cold - storage apples need to be observed [6][9]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, while in North China the price increase range is narrowing. The demand side has different inventory situations. Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [12]. Pigs - The pig market has a strong pre - Spring Festival consumption expectation, but the price increase is limited by demand. The supply - demand game is intensifying, and the market is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [15]. Meal - The meal market has a loose domestic supply, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low and there is uncertainty. The market is expected to oscillate, with support around 2,700 [18]. Eggs - The egg market has a slowdown in the decline of the laying - hen inventory. The market has a differentiated performance before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On January 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.23%, the futures price of Y2605 increased by 0.45%, and the basis decreased by 2.94%. The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.15%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.16%, and the basis remained unchanged. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.52%, and the basis remained unchanged [1]. - Spread Changes: The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 3.33%, the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 23.08%, and the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 28.57%. The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 50.00%, and the spread between soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased by 1.97% [1]. Cotton - Futures Market: On January 20, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.14%, the price of cotton 2609 decreased by 0.07%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.06%. The main - contract position decreased by 1.61%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.11%, and the effective forecast increased by 14.70% [2]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.15%, and the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The Ya - Asia inventory decreased by 100.0%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, the bonded - area inventory increased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 4.4% [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: On January 20, the price of sugar 2605 decreased by 1.16%, the price of sugar 2609 decreased by 1.14%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.25%. The main - contract position increased by 2.70%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.22%, and the effective forecast decreased by 86.23% [3]. - Spot Market: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37%, the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.38%, the Nanning basis increased by 35.34%, and the Kunming basis increased by 141.38% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative sugar production in the country decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, the cumulative production in Guangxi decreased by 29.42%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 40.96% [3]. Red Dates - Futures Market: On January 20, the price of red date 2605 decreased by 1.30%, the price of red date 2607 decreased by 1.29%, and the price of red date 2609 decreased by 1.27%. The 5 - 7 spread and 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [4]. - Spot Market: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.43%, and the first - grade and second - grade spot prices remained unchanged [4]. Apples - Futures Market: On January 20, the price of apple 2605 increased by 0.28%, the price of apple 2610 increased by 1.51%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 7.69%. The futures position decreased by 0.63%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 2.25% [6]. - Spot Market: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets increased slightly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On January 20, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.56%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 33.33%, the Shekou port market price decreased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit decreased by 166.67%, the Brazilian arrival duty - paid price decreased by 0.04%, and the import profit decreased by 3.31% [12]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.20%, the average price increased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 3.31%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 7.69%, and the starch - corn 03 spread decreased by 1.46% [12]. Pigs - Futures Market: On January 20, the main - contract basis increased by 6.19%, the price of pig 2605 decreased by 0.42%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 1.32%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 43.75%, and the main - contract position decreased by 6.66% [15]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [15]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.52%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 0.80%, the weekly piglet price increased by 6.45%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.24%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 164.04%, the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 2193.07%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [15]. Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.33%, the basis decreased by 2.41%, the Brazilian February shipment - period crushing profit decreased by 1.5%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 2.19%, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.36%, the basis increased by 71.19%, the Canadian March shipment - period crushing profit increased by 9.03%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.39%, the basis decreased by 7.69%. The spot price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.76%, the basis decreased by 5.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.21% [18]. - Spreads: The soybean - meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 3.31%, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 19.70%, the oil - meal ratio increased, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased [18]. Eggs - Futures Market: On January 20, the price of egg 03 contract increased by 0.13%, the price of egg 04 contract increased by 0.42%, the 3 - 4 spread decreased by 3.66%, and the basis decreased by 7.31% [21]. - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price decreased by 1.15% [21]. - Industry Situation: The egg - chick price increased by 3.45%, the culled - hen price increased by 7.50%, the feed - egg ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [21].
《农产品》日报-20260121
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-21 02:12