原油成品油早报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while the total waterborne inventories have decreased month - on - month but are higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, the Dubai market is loose, and the WTI and Brent markets are decoupled [4]. - In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel. The overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the strengthening of crude oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - International Crude Oil: From January 14 to January 20, 2026, BRENT increased by $0.98, DUBAI decreased by $0.37, and the BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.01, while the DUBAI - BRT (EFS) decreased by $0.02 [3]. - Domestic Crude Oil and Related Products: From January 14 to January 20, SC decreased by $0.40, OMAN decreased by $0.37, and the SC - BRT decreased by $1.00. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 40 yuan, and domestic diesel prices decreased by 42 yuan [3]. - Other Products: From January 14 to January 20, the Singapore 380CST fuel oil decreased by $11.19, the main contract of SHFE FU decreased by 26 yuan, and the main contract of SHFE BU decreased by 3 yuan [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Armed Forces spokesman stated that any hostile and provocative actions will be firmly countered [3]. - All ports in Libya's Oil Crescent are shut down due to bad weather [3]. - Venezuela's National Assembly is expected to discuss the oil law on Thursday [3]. 3.3 Inventory - In the week of January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9 were 8.977 million barrels, expected to be 3.565 million barrels, and the previous value was 7.702 million barrels [4]. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending January 9 were - 29,000 barrels, expected to be 512,000 barrels, and the previous value was 5.594 million barrels [4].