Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For copper, the price callback happened in the second half of this week. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. Although there may be more pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation this year, the post - festival inventory clearance may be faster [1]. - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still low, and the consumption is weak. However, the growth of photovoltaic installation and the expectation of export rush provide short - term support for domestic demand. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and the possible active restocking may support the aluminum price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets and the positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by the news of Indonesian quotas and follows the nickel price in the short term [3][4]. - For lead, the price fluctuates at a high level following the macro trend. The supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory starts to accumulate. It is expected that the price will oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short term [6]. - For tin, the price is greatly affected by capital sentiment. There are supply risks in major supply countries, but the smelters are willing to deliver to warehouses at high prices. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, the price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [12]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a resonance between futures and spot may occur [14]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Price and Inventory: From January 14th to 20th, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 315, and the LME inventory increased by 8,875 [1]. - Market Analysis: The price callback was due to US tariff disturbances and high inventory in the US. In the short term, the negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: From January 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [1]. - Market Analysis: The basis and processing fees are low, and the consumption is weak. However, the growth of photovoltaic and export rush support the price, and overseas restocking may also support the price [1]. Zinc - Supply and Demand: The domestic and imported TC is declining, and the domestic zinc ore is tightening. The production increased by 15,000 tons in January. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand in Europe is average. The export window was opened in December [2]. - Market Analysis: The domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - Supply, Demand and Inventory: The pure nickel production decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory accumulation slowed down [3]. - Market Analysis: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the game between policies and fundamentals continues [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply, Demand and Inventory: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [3][4]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is driven by the news of Indonesian quotas and follows the nickel price [3][4]. Lead - Supply and Demand: The production of primary lead is expected to increase by 15,000 tons in January, and the production of recycled lead is expected to increase by 12,000 tons. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 32,500 tons [6]. - Market Analysis: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short term [6]. Tin - Supply and Demand: There are differences in the recovery expectation of low - grade tin in the first quarter. The supply in major countries is disturbed, and the demand has different responses to price changes. The LME inventory oscillates [9]. - Market Analysis: The price is affected by capital sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [9]. Industrial Silicon - Supply and Demand: Some factories in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia are under maintenance, and the supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [12]. - Market Analysis: The price is expected to oscillate with the cost and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance, and the inventory accumulation in January is expected to be about 1,400 tons per month [14]. - Market Analysis: The absolute price is affected by the futures market, and a resonance between futures and spot may occur [14].
有色早报-20260121
Yong An Qi Huo·2026-01-21 02:13