甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: With the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi have or plan to stop production. Methanol faces difficulties in moving up or down. MTO profit caps the upside, and unless other downstream products increase in price, it is currently more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2]. - Plastic: The market shows a volatile trend with stable spot prices and weak basis. Oil - and coal - based profits are deteriorating. Upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are reducing inventory, while social inventory is accumulating. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in 05 is expected to face significant pressure [3]. - PP: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and export volume is slightly declining. Supply is flat in January due to increased temporary maintenance plans. Overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in 05 and later is expected to be slightly pressured, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [4]. - PVC: The basis shows a slight improvement. Transaction volume is average this week. Upstream raw material prices are stable, and comprehensive profit is low. Short - term seasonal production recovery is underway. Total inventory is still moderately high, and export volume remains flat. The long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6]. 3. Summary by Industry Methanol - Price Data: On January 2, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 9, and the price of South China spot decreased by 25. The price of Northwest discount to the market decreased by 22, and the price of Hebei discount to the market decreased by 30 [2]. - Market Situation: Iran conflict continues to ferment, and MTO plants have production cuts or shutdown plans. MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [2]. Plastic - Price Data: On January 2, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene decreased by 20, the price of East China LD decreased by 125, and the price of East China HD decreased by 50. The import profit decreased by 27, and the two - oil inventory decreased by 15 [3]. - Market Situation: The market is volatile with stable spot prices and weak basis. Oil - and coal - based profits are worsening, and social inventory is accumulating. The supply of standard products is increasing [3]. PP - Price Data: On January 20, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene remained unchanged, the price of East China PP decreased by 55, and the price of North China PP decreased by 25. The price of Shandong powder decreased by 80, and the price of East China copolymer decreased by 20 [4]. - Market Situation: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and export volume is slightly declining. Supply is flat in January, and inventory is moderately high [4]. PVC - Price Data: On January 20, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong caustic soda decreased by 15, the price of East China电石 - based PVC increased by 20, and the price of Northwest PVC decreased by 20 [6]. - Market Situation: The basis shows a slight improvement. Transaction volume is average. Upstream raw material prices are stable, and comprehensive profit is low. Total inventory is moderately high, and export volume remains flat [6].