原木期货日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the spot market, due to low inventory in Jiangsu, there is a shortage of some specifications of logs and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, affected by the sentiment of the black sector, the log futures have increased positions and declined, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short term, the price is expected to have certain support [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different log contracts on January 20, 2026: Log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; Log 2603 was 756.0, down 7.0 from the previous day with a decline of -0.92%; Log 2605 was 775.0, down 7.5 with a decline of -0.96%; Log 2607 was 789.5, down 6.5 with a decline of -0.82%. The basis of the main contract was -16.0, up 7.0 from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices of different types of logs in ports on January 20, 2026 remained unchanged compared to the previous day, including those in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port [1]. - Outer - market quotes on January 23 and January 16, 2026 for radiation pine and spruce remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost - On January 21, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.955, up 0.001 from the previous day with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 753.53 yuan, up 0.11 yuan from the previous day with a 0% change [1]. 3.3 Supply - Monthly supply: As of December 31, 2025, port throughput was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November 30, 2025 with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous month with a growth rate of 12.24% [1]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume was about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]. 3.4 Inventory - Weekly inventory of main ports: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 257.00 million cubic meters, down 12.0 million cubic meters from January 9, 2026 with a decline of - 4.46%. In Shandong, it was 192.00 million cubic meters, down 4.0 million cubic meters with a decline of - 2.04%. In Jiangsu, it was 41.08 million cubic meters, down 7.4 million cubic meters with a decline of - 15.18% [1][2]. 3.5 Demand - Weekly demand: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.16 million cubic meters, up 0.41 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 7%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million cubic meters, up 0.45 million cubic meters with a growth rate of 16%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, down 0.07 million cubic meters with a decline of - 3% [2].