日评-20260121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.82%-1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6-108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Commodity Sector Metals - For steel, the weakening of raw material prices may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000-3200, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3150-3350. Long the steel-iron ore ratio and long the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the off-season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It will have a wide-range oscillation in the range of 770-830 [2]. - For coke and coking coal, the coking coal price in Shanxi has more increases than decreases, and the Mongolian coal price has fallen from a high level. The coke price of mainstream coking enterprises starts to increase, and the port trade price has fallen. Both are expected to oscillate weakly, with the coking coal in the range of 1000-1150 and coke in the range of 1600-1750 [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper should wait for adjustment to complete and then enter long positions; aluminum should wait for a callback to layout long positions; zinc should focus on the support around 23800 and take a long position at low prices in the long term; tin should participate cautiously in the short term and try a long position at low prices after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly, with the main contract in the range of 8200-9200. For polysilicon, the average spot price has a small increase, and the futures price oscillates strongly. For lithium carbonate, the supply-side disturbance expectation rises again, and the price runs strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and in the medium term, go long at low prices [2]. - For PX, the supply-demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the range of 7000-7500. For PTA, it will oscillate in the range of 4900-5300 in the short term, and go long below 5000. For short fiber, the supply-demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle chips, multiple bottle chip devices are under maintenance, and the factory inventory continues to decrease, which supports the processing fee [2]. - For ethanol, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near-term supply-demand expectation is weak. The price of MEG in January is still under pressure. For pure benzene, the supply-demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the driving force. For styrene, the supply-demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, the market lacks driving force, and it oscillates weakly. For live pigs, it is difficult for the white-striped pork price to follow the increase, and the futures price is under pressure. For corn, there are both support and pressure, and it runs in a high-level range. For palm oil, boosted by exports, it tries to break through the annual resistance line [2]. - For sugar, the end of the stocking period is approaching, and the terminal demand is lower than expected. For cotton, the spot performance is strong, and the price continues to adjust. For eggs, the market performance varies, and the price continues to adjust. For apples, the trading has improved, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. For jujubes, the demand is weak, and the futures price has weakened [2].