瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, due to the loose fundamentals and the iron - water production falling short of expectations, the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - For coke, with the supply being tight and the blast furnace operation rate and molten iron output of steel mills declining simultaneously, the fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - Coking Coal: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1129.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the position volume is 649591.00 lots, down 15352.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 86396.00 lots, up 23778.00 lots; the spread between the JM9 - 5 contracts is 74.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts is 700.00, down 1700.00; the basis of the JM main contract is 176.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - Coke: The closing price of the J main contract is 1683.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the position volume is 40095.00 lots, down 134.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts is - 931.00 lots, down 70.00 lots; the spread between the J9 - 5 contracts is 75.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of warehouse receipts is 2220.00, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract is - 18.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Coking Coal: The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1035.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Russian coking coal forward spot is 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian imported coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Coke: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the weekly inventory is 323.20 million tons, down 11.90 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 0.37%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - The monthly raw coal output is 43703.49 million tons, up 1024.19 million tons; the monthly coal and lignite import volume is 5860.00 million tons, up 1455.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 197.80 million tons, up 7.90 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 562.40 million tons, up 10.50 million tons; the weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 1132.85 million tons, up 61.17 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.91 days, up 0.11 days; the monthly coking coal import volume is 1376.98 million tons, up 303.83 million tons; the monthly coking coal total supply is 5239.57 million tons, up 183.04 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14 percentage points; the weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 65.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton; the monthly coke output is 4274.26 million tons, up 103.96 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of coking coal for 247 steel mills nationwide is 802.20 million tons, up 4.47 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke for 247 sample steel mills is 650.33 million tons, up 4.60 million tons; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills is 11.97 days, down 0.05 days [2] - The monthly coke and semi - coke export volume is 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills nationwide is 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points; the monthly crude steel output is 6818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity and key area protection will not weaken [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Coking Coal: The load of coal washing plants on the supply side continues to rise, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the raw coal inventory accumulates. On the demand side, the load of steel and coke declines, the molten iron output drops, the losses of coking enterprises expand, and the profits of steel mills recover. The spot market has a certain willingness to accept goods. Technically, the main contract of coking coal closes down 1.83% [2] - Coke: The operation of coking enterprises on the supply side declines, and the total coke inventory is at a low level in the same period. On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate drops, and the daily molten iron output decreases. The price increase proposed by mainstream coking enterprises is still in the game. Technically, the main contract of coke closes down 0.59% [2]