铂钯金期货日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium will continue to dominate trading in the medium to long term. Due to the uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, as well as the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2600 per ounce and find support at $2400 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main - contract closing price was 619.35 yuan/gram, and palladium's was 490.00 yuan/gram, up 9.45 yuan. Platinum's main - contract open interest was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands, and palladium's was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 612.53 yuan/gram, and the Yangtze River's palladium spot average price was 438.00 yuan/gram, up 1.00 yuan. Platinum's main - contract basis was - 6.82 yuan/gram, and palladium's was - 52.00 yuan/gram, down 8.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the estimated total supply of platinum was 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons, and that of palladium was 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The estimated total demand for platinum was 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons, and that of palladium was 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts, and palladium's were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.55, down 0.50. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.97%, up 0.06%. The VIX volatility index was 20.09, up 1.25 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns triggered a global bond - market sell - off. The US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump was close to nominating the next Fed Chair. The European Parliament froze the approval process of a trade agreement with the US. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%. The London platinum price rose above $2460 per ounce, and the platinum - palladium main contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fluctuated. The market's demand for safe - haven assets increased due to the Greenland situation, and the safe - haven premium in the precious - metals market rose. South Africa's power - supply stability improved, but long - term maintenance issues remained [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 22, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 17; US November core PCE price index year - on - year/ month - on - month; US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value. January 23, 07:30: Japan's December core CPI year - on - year. January 23, 22:45: US January S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI flash. January 23, 23:00: US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; US January one - year inflation rate expectation final value [2].