瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260121

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2605 contract edged higher. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The supply - demand situation shows that hot - rolled coil production has been increasing for four consecutive weeks with a capacity utilization rate of 78.77%, terminal demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, but weak furnace materials put pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,286 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the position volume was 1,449,160 lots, down 36,985 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 12,725 lots, up 1,177 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread was - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 216,302 tons, down 300 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 169 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 24 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, up 2 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 165.5081 million tons, up 2.7087 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 404,800 tons, down 35,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.502 million tons, up 43,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 1.4931 million tons, up 85,600 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.82%, down 0.51 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.46%, down 0.60 percentage points. The output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0836 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.77%, up 0.72 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 765,300 tons, down 7,900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.858 million tons, down 50,100 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] Industry News - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will maintain a necessary level. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.66% and a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8.30% and a year - on - year increase of 6.53% [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]