瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2602 rose and then fell, closing at 7,308 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of some domestic plants changed slightly, with styrene production and capacity utilization decreasing slightly and showing little change month-on-month. The downstream operating rates varied, with the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increasing month-on-month. The visible inventory continued to decline, falling back to a neutral level. The profitability of non-integrated plants expanded, while the profits of integrated plants remained stable and were considerable. This week, most large domestic styrene plants are expected to operate stably. Two large plants that recently restarted are expected to resume normal operation on January 25, and the short-term operating rate is expected to remain low. Some EPS plants will resume operation, and the operating load may increase slightly. There will be little change in the short-term supply of the PS and ABS industries. In terms of cost, the situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and international oil prices may be affected by geopolitical factors. The styrene market is still expected to be strong. Pay attention to the changes in production plants in the future. The styrene contract will soon switch to the 03 contract, and the daily range of EB2603 is expected to be around 7,200 - 7,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,308 yuan/ton, with a previous value of 7,214 yuan/ton; the 3-month contract closing price of styrene was 7,340 yuan/ton, with a change of +92 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract was 342,939 lots, and the open interest was 183,190 lots. The long position volume of the top 20 holders in styrene futures was 398,724 lots, the short position volume was 434,650 lots, and the net long position volume was 331,077 lots, with a change of -35,926 lots. The total number of styrene warehouse receipts was 585 lots, with a change of -256 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,202 yuan/ton, with a change of -11 yuan/ton. The FOB Korea intermediate price of styrene was 916.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of -11 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price of styrene was 926.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of +125 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in different regions were as follows: 7,150 yuan/ton in the Northeast region (+125 yuan/ton), 7,455 yuan/ton in the South China region (-20 yuan/ton), 7,225 yuan/ton in the North China region (-25 yuan/ton), and 7,345 yuan/ton in the East China region (-45 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 711 US dollars/ton, with a change of -10 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 691 US dollars/ton, with a change of 0 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 785 US dollars/ton, with a change of +13.5 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 413 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 284 cents/gallon, with a change of -1 cent/gallon; the CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 718.33 US dollars/ton, with a change of 0 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 851 US dollars/ton. The market prices of pure benzene in different regions were as follows: 5,600 yuan/ton in the South China market (0 yuan/ton), 5,690 yuan/ton in the East China market (+45 yuan/ton), and 5,580 yuan/ton in the North China market (+30 yuan/ton) [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 70.86%, with a change of -0.06%. The national styrene inventory was 161,160 tons, with a change of -1,180 tons; the total inventory at the main ports in East China was 93,500 tons, with a change of -7,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 54.05%, with a change of +7.33%; the operating rate of ABS was 69.8%, with a change of 0%; the operating rate of PS was -1.5%; the operating rate of UPR was 39%, with a change of 0%; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 82.92%, with a change of +1.24% [2] Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, the output of Chinese styrene plants was 355,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08%; the capacity utilization rate was 70.86%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%. From January 9th to 15th, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS downstream of styrene was 267,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.16%. As of January 15th, the inventory of styrene plants was 161,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.73%. As of January 19th, the inventory at the East China ports of styrene was 93,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.06%; the inventory at the South China ports of styrene was 12,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 36.84%. On January 20th, the non-integrated profit of styrene was 386.05 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 955.13 yuan/ton [2]