瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook, advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. Globally, there was a large - scale sell - off in the bond market, causing market volatility. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, hot metal production remained below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore port inventories reached a new high. Overall, the ports continued to accumulate inventory, with relatively sufficient spot resources. Rio Tinto's quarterly iron ore production and sales reached a new high, and Simandou increased growth potential, which put pressure on iron ore prices in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 575,249 lots, a decrease of 11,163 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 17.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,649 lots, a decrease of 5,527 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 1,400 lots, a decrease of 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 was 103 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 846 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port was 751 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 60 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 103.55 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.09, a decrease of 0.01. The estimated import cost was 834 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 2,929.80 million tons, a decrease of 251.10 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,897.70 million tons, a decrease of 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,288.70 million tons, an increase of 244.26 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,262.22 million tons, an increase of 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 22 days, an increase of 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.95 million tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.02%, an increase of 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 43.44 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,729.00, an increase of 79.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 20.30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.34 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 78.82%, a decrease of 0.51%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.46%, a decrease of 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.81%, an increase of 0.18%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.07%, an increase of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.74%, an increase of 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.06%, a decrease of 0.17% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a decrease of 251.1 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,246.6 million tons, a decrease of 359.8 million tons compared with the previous period. From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons [2]