合成橡胶产业日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,650 - 12,430 in the short - term. The supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remains high, with an increase in both producer and trader inventories. Although short - term production profit has been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply reduction. The downstream demand is weak as terminal users lack the willingness to stock up at high prices. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly, with some semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, while all - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 93,726, with a week - on - week increase of 2,724 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 8,130 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in various regions has decreased. For example, the price in Shandong from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Guangdong from Maoming Petrochemical is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 315 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 0.98 dollars/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is 60.36 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 710 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 549 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton. The price of butadiene CFR China is 1,180 dollars/ton, with no change. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, with an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.68%, with an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 721 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.49 million tons, with an increase of 0.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. The producer inventory is 26,900 tons, and the trader inventory is 8,040 tons, with an increase of 1,270 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, with an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, with an increase of 7.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,301 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,831 million pieces, with an increase of 663 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the stable production of overhauled enterprises, the output increased significantly compared with last week, and the foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 5.50% [2]