瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2605 is oscillating strongly, closing at 6,666 yuan/ton. Last week, Yangzi Petrochemical's 200,000-ton unit restarted, while Zhejiang Petrochemical's 400,000-ton, Fujian United's 450,000-ton, and Guangdong Petrochemical's 400,000-ton units were shut down for maintenance. PE production and capacity utilization decreased month-on-month. The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, with varying degrees of decline in the agricultural film and packaging film operating rates. The inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased month-on-month, with little inventory pressure. The cost of the oil-based process increased and losses deepened; the cost of the coal-based process decreased and profits expanded. Some shut-down units restarted this week, Guoneng Yulin's 300,000-ton unit had a short stop, and a new 250,000-ton maintenance unit was added at Maoming Petrochemical. The operating rate of downstream agricultural films may continue the seasonal downward trend, and the peak stocking period for packaging films has passed with limited demand follow-up [2]. - The situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and international oil prices may be disturbed by geopolitical factors. The demand side remains weak, but due to an increase in industry maintenance units, inventory has been smoothly reduced, and market wait-and-see sentiment has increased. The daily K-line of L2605 should pay attention to the support around 6,450 and the resistance around 6,710 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 6,666 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 26. The closing price of the January 26 contract for polyethylene was 6,720 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 14. The closing price of the May contract for polyethylene was 6,666 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the September 26 contract for polyethylene was 6,694 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 30 [2]. - The trading volume was 374,602 lots, a decrease of 9,553 lots month-on-month. The open interest was 504,362 lots, an increase of 9,090 lots month-on-month [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread was 54, a decrease of 12. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene was 476,299 lots, and the sell order volume was 513,979 lots. The net buy order volume was -37,680 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,693.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.87 yuan/ton month-on-month. The average price in East China was 6,836.28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.14 yuan/ton month-on-month [2]. Basis - The basis was 53.91, a decrease of 53.87 month-on-month [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid-price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 58.21 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.08. The CFR mid-price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 549 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5. The CFR mid-price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 691 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 10, and the CFR mid-price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 711 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 81.59%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.15%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes was 29.33%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural films was 36.93%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.32%, a decrease of 2.78 percentage points. The 40-day historical volatility was 14.73%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polyethylene was 14.03%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 14.03%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From January 9th to 15th, China's total polyethylene production was 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period [2]. - From January 9th to 15th, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.3% from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8% from the previous period [2]. - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a decrease of 4.37% from the previous week. As of January 16th, the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week [2]. - From January 9th to 15th, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 4.29% month-on-month to 7,217 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 60 yuan/ton to -531 yuan/ton. The cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 2.57% month-on-month to 6,559 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 183 yuan/ton to 217 yuan/ton [2].