国债期货日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. The 1 - 3Y maturity yields rose by about 0.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y maturity yields fell by about 0.30bp and 2.05bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. Treasury bond futures were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long - term. The TS main contract fell 0.01%, while the TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.01%, 0.39%, and 0.75% respectively. The DR007 weighted average rate fluctuated around 1.49%. [4] - In the domestic fundamental aspect, China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, with the social financing growth rate continuing to decline, mainly dragged down by government bonds. Credit increased slightly less, the marginal improvement of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises, but the trend of household de - leveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. In December, China's import and export scale reached a monthly high, with annual exports growing by 6.1% and the structure continuously optimized, among which high - tech product exports grew by 13.2%. [4] - A package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand was introduced. Overseas, concerns about the US labor market eased. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week fell to a recent low, leading to the disappointment of the Fed's rate - cut expectation in January. [4] - Overall, as some negative factors eased, the sentiment in the bond market improved. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for financing cooled the equity market, and market risk appetite declined. In 2025, China's economy maintained a steady - and - progressive growth trend, with the economic structure characterized by "stronger external demand than domestic demand" and "stronger supply than demand", and structural contradictions still needed to be improved. With the stability of the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins, internal and external constraints weakened. The central bank stated that there was still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts within the year. However, under the weak market allocation demand, the supply pressure of long - term bonds continued to disrupt the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Main Contract Prices and Volumes: The T main contract closed at 108.200, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 73,032, an increase of 11,164; the TF main contract closed at 105.880, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 54,402, an increase of 5,171; the TS main contract closed at 102.430, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 25,032, a decrease of 4,787; the TL main contract closed at 112.250, up 0.75%, with a trading volume of 109,819, an increase of 1,260. [2] - Futures Spreads: For example, the TL2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.11, up 0.00; the T03 - TL03 spread was - 4.05, down 0.74. [2] - Futures Positions: The T main contract's open interest was 243,456, an increase of 1,698. The net short position of the top 20 in T increased by 2,574 to 2,219. Similar data were provided for TF, TS, and TL. [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - CTD Net Prices: The net prices of some CTD bonds like 250018.IB (6y) were 100.5206, up 0.0248; 250025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0485. [2] - Active Bond Yields: The yields of 1 - year active bonds were 1.2000%, unchanged; 3 - year was 1.4150%, down 1.25bp; 5 - year was 1.5850%, down 0.50bp; 7 - year was 1.7025%, down 0.90bp; 10 - year was 1.8250%, down 0.70bp. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3418%, down 0.09bp; Shibor overnight was 1.3220%, down 5.20bp; the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5000%, up 0.42bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.4880%, up 0.50bp. [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Policy and News - Industrial and Information Development: In 2025, the added value of large - scale industries in China increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the total telecom business volume increased by 9.1%. The first - stage 6G technology test in China formed over 300 key technology reserves, and the second - stage test has been launched. The scale of China's artificial intelligence core industry in 2025 is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a guide for the construction of a comprehensive standardization system for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, support local areas to build future industries according to local conditions, and increase the investment of government investment funds. [2] - Fiscal and Financial Policies: A package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand was introduced. A 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment was established for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 - billion - yuan loans for private investment of small and medium - sized enterprises. A loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises was implemented for the first time, covering 14 "key industrial chains and their upstream and downstream industries", the production service industry, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors. Policies such as interest - subsidy for service - industry business entities, personal consumer loans, and equipment renewal loans were optimized, and personal credit card bill installments were included in the interest - subsidy scope. [2] - Fiscal Deficit and Debt: In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens". Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be arranged in 2026 for "two important" construction and "two new" work, and policies will be optimized, and the negative - list management of special bond projects will be improved. The small and medium - sized enterprise loan interest - subsidy policy focuses on supporting 14 key industrial chains such as new energy, automobiles, industrial robots, medical equipment, and mobile communication equipment, their upstream and downstream industries, and production systems and services such as technology, logistics, information, and software. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate was about 4%, and the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. [3]