沪铜产业日报-20260121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market shows a situation where the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and cautious demand, with seasonal inventory build - up in social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 101,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 12,884.50 dollars/ton, up 131 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's holding volume of Shanghai copper was 223,784 lots, up 4,886 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper was - 54,818 lots, down 2,916 lots. The LME copper inventory was 156,300 tons, up 8,875 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 47,800 tons, down 750 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrants were 145,581 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 100,060 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 100,290 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 25 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 22 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis was - 1,220 yuan/ton, down 715 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was + 17.80 dollars/ton, up 34.29 dollars; the domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was 101.84 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 90,590 yuan/metal ton, down 320 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 91,290 yuan/metal ton, down 320 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 68,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 82,788 billion yuan, up 4,197.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,810,000 thousand pieces, up 418,000 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 28%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.25%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 23.38%, down 0.0134%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, down 0.0084 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair, narrowing the candidates to four, with a final decision possibly announced next week. The European Parliament announced the freezing of the approval process for the trade agreement reached with the US in July last year. China's National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand in all aspects. A package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan private investment special guarantee plan and a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises. The January LPR quotes remained unchanged from last month [2]