黑色产业链日报-20260121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel products: The production recovery of finished steel products has slowed down. The apparent consumption of rebar has rebounded, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion, but the inventory change is flat month - on - month. In the subsequent consumption off - season, inventory may return to accumulation. The inventory is at a low level and shows a super - seasonal depletion. The inventory depletion speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large, it also shows a super - seasonal depletion, and the recent increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. The overall fundamentals are neutral, lacking driving forces, and the price fluctuates affected by the furnace charge end. It is supported by the cost end at the bottom and lacks upward driving forces at the top [3]. - Iron ore: The current dominant factor of iron ore prices is not its fundamentals but macro - expectations. Under the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is no support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range oscillatory trend [21]. - Coal and coke: The accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the futures market and support steel prices. The follow - up needs to focus on the event's handling results. If the event leads to stricter regulatory production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot - metal production resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term oversupply contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the change in macro - sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", the long - term prices of coal and coke will face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloys are supported by the cost end at the bottom. In the short - term, after a correction, ferroalloys may show a bottom - oscillatory trend [47]. - Soda ash: Previously, the warming of the commodity market sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the futures price rose. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as new production capacities gradually release output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. Currently, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and the number of furnace blockages is increasing. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. The high - level export of soda ash continues to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - Glass: There are rumors in the market that some production lines have ignition expectations, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual demand and the expected demand are weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - like movement. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired or ignited, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. For example, there was news about the conversion of Hubei's petroleum - coke production lines to natural gas before. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply expectations. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory in the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, and the spot pressure still exists as the terminal enters the off - season [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - Price Data: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3192, 3117, and 3162 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3316, 3286, and 3305 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spread Data: The 01 - 05 month - spread of rebar was 75 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 month - spread of hot - rolled coils was 30 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026 [4]. - Spot Price and Basis: The summary price of rebar in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 78 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026; the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 46 yuan/ton [9][11]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On January 21, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 784, and 766.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 basis was 42 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [22]. - Fundamental Data: As of January 16, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.01 tons, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 319.89 tons, the global shipping volume was 2929.9 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16555.1 tons [26]. Coal and Coke - Futures Spread and Profit Data: On January 21, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 163.5 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 113.5 yuan/ton, and the on - paper coking profit was - 25 yuan/ton [34]. - Spot Price Data: On January 21, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron Data: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 44 yuan/ton, the silicon - iron 01 - 05 spread was - 5542 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton [48]. - Silicon Manganese Data: On January 21, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 244 yuan/ton, the silicon - manganese 01 - 05 spread was 128 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [49]. Soda Ash - Futures Price and Spread Data: On January 21, 2026, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1163, 1226, and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 44 yuan/ton [62]. - Spot Price and Spread Data: On January 21, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda in North China was 0 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - Futures Price and Spread Data: On January 21, 2026, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1039, 1146, and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [86]. - Sales and Production Data: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 135, in Hubei was 90, in East China was 91, and in South China was 105 [87].