软商品日报-20260121

Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated January 21, 2026, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Sugar Market Core View - Domestic sugar futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. If supply pressure increases, raw sugar may face significant downward pressure, which will also suppress the domestic sugar futures market [3] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, SR01 closed at 5266 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.45% and a weekly decline of 1.02%. SR03 closed at 5143 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75% and a weekly decline of 2.96%. SR05 closed at 5144 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.75% and a weekly decline of 2.93% [4] - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 20, 2026, was 60 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was -75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton [12] - The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar imports on January 21, 2026, was 4002 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 77 yuan/ton. The quota - out price was 5068 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 59 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton [16] Cotton Market Core View - Due to the squeezing of downstream profits and the significant strengthening of the internal - external price spread, there is pressure on the upside of cotton prices. However, the load of spinning mills is basically stable, the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption, and the overall downstream inventory pressure is not large. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [18] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 15155 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.07%. Cotton 05 closed at 14535 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.07%. Cotton 09 closed at 14705 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.03% [19] - The cotton basis was 1355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The spread between cotton 01 - 05 was 620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton [19] Apple Market Core View - The logic of the current main apple futures contract 05 and the near - month contracts 03 and 04 is centered around weak demand and the ebb of capital sentiment, while the logic of the shortage of delivery products is temporarily put aside. The logic of the 10 - contract corresponds to the new season's listing and is less affected by current demand, with relatively weak downward elasticity. Recently, the trading in the production areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, and the decline of the futures price has narrowed. Continued attention should be paid to apple stocking. If demand improves significantly, the futures price may be more strongly supported; otherwise, it may continue to decline [25] Price and Spread - On January 21, 2026, AP01 closed at 8188 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.54% and a weekly decrease of 18.12%. AP03 closed at 9463 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 5.3%. AP04 closed at 9424 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.35% and a weekly decrease of 4.82% [26] - The spread between AP01 - 05 was - 1227 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 6.26% and a weekly decrease of 87.45%. The main basis was 29 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100% and a weekly decrease of 105.23% [27] Jujube Market Core View - In the short term, jujube prices may maintain a low - level volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - Chinese New Year procurement. In the medium to long term, the overall supply - demand situation of domestic jujubes in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [31] Price and Spread - The report provides historical data on jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and the sum of jujube warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as price trends in Xinjiang's main jujube - producing areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade gray jujubes in main sales areas [32][34][35]