策略月报：全球失序关注黄金，政策主线轮动出圈-20260121

Market Review - In early 2026, the global asset market continued a pattern of "risk and safety coexisting," with the Asia-Pacific stock market leading the gains and gold reaching new highs. The Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China both leaned towards a "dual expansion" monetary policy, boosting global risk appetite. However, aggressive actions in geopolitics by the US have increased uncertainty, driving sovereign assets higher but potentially disturbing risk assets [1][7]. Economic Environment - The national economy concluded 2025 with a stable GDP growth of 5.0%. The information transmission, software, and IT services sector led with a growth of 11.1%. Exports remained resilient, but fixed asset investment declined by 3.8%, and consumption growth was below expectations. Price signals showed signs of stabilization, with CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, and PPI showing positive month-on-month changes for three consecutive months [1][26][30]. Policy Environment - Monetary easing commenced with the central bank lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points on January 19. This move aims to support major strategies and key areas. The China Securities Regulatory Commission raised the margin financing ratio from 80% to 100%, indicating a prudent approach to counter-cyclical adjustments. The synergy of policies has significantly increased, with financial, fiscal, industrial, and technological policies working in concert to support new productivity and domestic consumption [1][26]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a "barbell allocation" focusing on "technology innovation and dividend assets," implementing a dynamic timing principle with ETF tools to smooth the curve and optimize risk-return ratios. The report suggests a focus on wide-based, major asset classes, technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, upstream cycles, medical consumption, and undervalued dividend sectors [1][2]. Market Outlook - The current market faces multiple factors influencing its dynamics. High valuation levels, regulatory cooling signals, and overseas geopolitical risks are suppressing overheating tendencies. Conversely, the dual drivers of technological innovation and domestic demand expansion are strengthening, with continuous policy support creating structural investment opportunities [2][3]. ETF Recommendations - The report recommends continued attention to gold stocks ETF, military industry ETF, and tourism ETF. The early 2026 geopolitical landscape, marked by the US withdrawal from 66 international organizations, has led to a deep disorder in global governance, providing medium to long-term support for safe-haven assets like gold and military stocks. Domestic policies are also expected to enhance service consumption recovery, suggesting investment opportunities in tourism [3][17].