广发早知道：汇总版-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show various trends. Some sectors are expected to be volatile, while others may have specific upward or downward trends based on their unique fundamentals [2][4][5] - In the commodities market, factors such as raw material supply, inventory levels, and downstream demand play crucial roles in determining price movements. For example, in the metals market, the supply of raw materials like nickel and copper, and the demand from industries such as stainless - steel production and electronics, affect prices [20][23][40] - In the financial market, stock index futures and bond futures are affected by domestic and international news, economic data, and policy orientations. For instance, A - share market sentiment is influenced by domestic economic development and overseas trade policies [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - Stainless Steel: Affected by approaching delivery, the price rose at the end of the session. The cost is supported by raw material news, but supply is abundant and demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 15,000 [2][46] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the spot price is under pressure. The industry operating rate has slightly increased, with high inventory and weak demand [3][111] - Coking Coal: The price of coal in Shanxi has mostly risen, while Mongolian coal has fallen from its high. The market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,000 - 1,200 [4][64] - Palm Oil: It leads the rise in the oil and fat sector, with the potential to break through the 9,000 mark. The production in Malaysia has decreased seasonally, and exports have increased [5][87] - Gold: Driven by geopolitical conflicts, the safe - haven sentiment boosts the gold price. It is recommended to buy on dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options [6][17] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market had a weak rebound with reduced trading volume. The semiconductor sector was hot. It is expected to enter a volatile trend, and investors are advised to control risks and reduce long positions [7][8][9] - Bond Futures: The money market is relatively loose, and long - term bond futures have strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and not to chase high prices [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals were affected by Trump's tariff suspension. Gold closed higher, while silver, platinum, and palladium had different trends. In the future, gold is expected to be strongly volatile, silver may be volatile at a high level, and platinum and palladium will follow gold and be volatile with a narrowing range [14][17][18] 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price oscillated and adjusted, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market speculation sentiment has eased, and the price may gradually return to fundamental pricing [19][23] - Alumina: The spot market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate widely around the cash cost line, with the reference range of 2,600 - 2,900 [24][26] - Aluminum: The market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The macro and policy expectations are strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 [27][29] - Zinc: The price oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the demand is suppressed. It is expected to be volatile, and investors can hold long positions at low prices in the long - term [32][36] - Tin: The price fluctuated widely. The supply has increased, and the demand from the welding industry is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and hold a long - term low - buying attitude [36][40] - Nickel: The impact of news has been digested, and the price oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 138,000 - 148,000 [40][43] - Stainless Steel: Similar to the daily selection, it is affected by delivery and cost - demand game, and is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [43][46] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - side disturbance expectation has risen again, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and buy on dips in the medium - term [47][50] - Polysilicon: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. It is expected to be volatile, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [54][56] 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - Steel: The supply and demand are both weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3,050 - 3,250 and 3,200 - 3,350 respectively [57][59] - Iron Ore: The supply is in the off - season, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure, and investors can short at around 800 [60][61] - Coking Coal: Similar to the daily selection, the spot is strong before the Spring Festival, but the market has over - anticipated the rise. It is expected to be bearish and volatile [62][64] - Coke: The mainstream coke enterprises have started to raise prices, but the market has over - anticipated. It is expected to be bearish and volatile, with the reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [65][67] - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,300 - 5,800 [68][69] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese ore supports the cost, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to be widely volatile, with the reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [70][72] 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - Meal: The U.S. soybean market is volatile, and the bottom of soybean meal is strongly supported. The domestic supply is loose, but the downside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile [73][75] - Live Pigs: The slaughter pressure has increased, and it is difficult for the white - strip pork price to rise. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [76][77] - Corn: There are both support and pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy release [78][79] - Sugar: The raw sugar is oscillating, and the domestic sugar market is in the late stage of stockpiling. The sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile at a low level [80] - Cotton: The U.S. cotton is stable, and the domestic cotton price is adjusting. It is expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to the support at around 14,400 - 14,500 [82][83] - Eggs: The egg price is stable, and the market is moving normally. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [85] - Oils and Fats: Palm oil leads the rise, with the potential to break through 9,000. Soybean oil may have a callback, and rapeseed oil is expected to be narrowly volatile [86][88] - Jujubes: The consumption drive is weak, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to run at a low level [89][90] - Apples: Supported by low inventory, the price has stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation after the Spring Festival [91][92] 3.3.4 Energy and Chemicals - PX: The short - term supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term and may be tight in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips [93] - PTA: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, and the driving force before the Spring Festival is limited. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate within the range of 4,900 - 5,300 [94][95] - Short - fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. The processing fee can be shorted at a high level [97] - Bottle - grade PET: Multiple devices are under maintenance, and the factory is reducing inventory. The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [98][99] - Ethylene Glycol: There is a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 5 - 9 spread and sell call options [100][101] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation has improved, but the high inventory restricts the driving force. It is recommended to short the BZ03 contract and narrow the EB - BZ spread [102][103] - Styrene: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the high valuation limits the rebound space. It is recommended to short the EB03 contract and narrow the processing fee [104][106] - LLDPE: The upstream has reduced the price to sell, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [107] - PP: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the PDH profit expansion position [107][108] - Methanol: The basis has strengthened, and the price is narrowly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - Caustic Soda: Similar to the daily selection, the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is under pressure [109][111] - PVC: The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, but the downside space is limited [112][113] - Urea: The inventory has fallen below one million tons, and the demand has recovered. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and the main contract reference range is 1,740 - 1,790 [114][115] - Soda Ash: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and short positions can be held [116][119] - Glass: The supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short positions can be held [116][120] - Natural Rubber: Thailand is entering the production - reduction period, and the raw material price has rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see [120][122] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the BR is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion opportunity between BR2603 and NR2603 [124][125][126]