LPG早报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 4340 (-50). There were 5977 lots of warehouse receipts (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2). The FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (week - on - week +12). PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. Port inventory decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.66 pct, and external sales decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, the domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern of the external market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand would end in February, and the PDH operating rate would decline. The domestic valuation was neutral, and the 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads were in reverse arbitrage. Future attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China decreased from 5045 to 4840, in East China from 4543 to 4467, and in Shandong remained at 4470. The CFR price of propane in South China decreased from 612 to 594, and the CIF price in Japan increased from 555 to 571. The CP forecast contract price decreased from 530 to 526. The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four decreased from 4380 to 4330, and the price of Shandong alkylate oil remained at 7130. The paper import profit and the main basis changed accordingly. The daily changes on January 21 were -60 for South China LPG, -6 for East China LPG, 0 for Shandong LPG, 18 for propane CIF Japan, -30 for Shandong ether - post carbon four, 0 for Shandong alkylate oil, and -21 for the main basis. [1] Daily Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the 02 - 03 spread was 78 (-14), the 03 - 04 spread was -273 (+4), and the 02 - 04 spread was -195 (-10). On Monday night at 9:30, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 542.39 and 536.39 US dollars respectively, rising significantly. [1] Weekly Viewpoint - As mentioned in the core viewpoints above, the domestic market was affected by geopolitical factors, and various price, spread, inventory, and operating rate data changed, with corresponding expectations for the future market. [1]