农产品早报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to limited supply increase, low channel inventory, and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, import and domestic auction - storage policies should be monitored as there is a supply gap [2]. - Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term as both supply and demand are stable. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory digestion are key factors [3]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, domestic sugar pricing can refer to domestic production cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus deepens, the price may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase, and demand is expected to improve due to expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance [8]. - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The pace of old - hen culling will affect egg prices in the second quarter [11]. - Apple prices of high - quality goods are stable, while prices of lower - quality goods are weakening. The inventory is decreasing but at a slower pace than last year. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [18]. - For pigs, there is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Futures prices depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a - 3 change in the base difference and a - 31 change in import profit. Starch prices in some regions were stable, with a - 1 change in the base difference and no change in processing profit [2]. - Market Analysis: Corn prices are expected to be moderately strong in the short - term and are affected by import and domestic auction - storage policies in the long - term. Starch prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term and are affected by downstream consumption in the long - term [2][3]. Sugar - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a 19 change in the base difference, - 29 changes in import profit from Thailand and Brazil, and a - 18 change in the number of warehouse receipts [6]. - Market Analysis: The international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, domestic sugar pricing can refer to domestic production cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus deepens, the price may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 55, the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 89, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [8]. - Market Analysis: Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase, and demand is expected to improve due to expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance [8]. Eggs - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, egg prices in some regions increased slightly, with a - 50 change in the base difference, and the prices of substitute products remained relatively stable [11]. - Market Analysis: The存栏 inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The pace of old - hen culling will affect egg prices in the second quarter [11]. Apples - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national apple inventory decreased by 44, and the base differences for different contracts changed [17][18]. - Market Analysis: Apple prices of high - quality goods are stable, while prices of lower - quality goods are weakening. The inventory is decreasing but at a slower pace than last year. The 05 contract should focus on inventory reduction [18]. Pigs - Price Data: From January 15 - 21, 2026, pig prices in some regions decreased, with a - 170 change in the base difference [18]. - Market Analysis: There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Futures prices depend on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term [18].