建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260122

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The current polyolefin market is still driven by costs, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand is gradually emerging, and the upward space is limited. The polyolefin market has entered a stage of weak shock consolidation [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6,666 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.41%), with a trading volume of 370,000 lots and an increase of 9,150 lots in positions to 504,362 lots. PP2605 closed at 6,485 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan, an increase of 0.42%, with an increase of 2,082 lots in positions to 468,300 lots [6]. - Cost Factors: Some oil fields in Kazakhstan suspended production due to power grid terminals, and the instability of the geopolitical situation has not been eliminated, leading to an increase in international oil prices [6]. - Fundamentals: The maintenance loss of PP remained high with limited changes in supply. The maintenance loss of plastics decreased and imported cargoes arrived in a concentrated manner, increasing the overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the demand for plastic film drove a slight increase in the start - up rate of agricultural film production. Other start - up rates were basically stable. The rapid price increase previously led to stronger resistance from downstream customers to high prices. Some downstream factories were rushing to complete annual orders, but the orders lacked sustainability under the high raw material price background, and small - scale enterprises might reduce production or enter the holiday period in advance [6]. 2. Industry News - Inventory: On January 21, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.79%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same period last year was 475,000 tons [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,520 - 6,850 yuan/ton, 6,650 - 7,000 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,750 - 7,100 yuan/ton in South China [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,120 - 6,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The offers of production enterprises were stable with some increases, the premium of the real - order auctions of major manufacturers continued, and the overall market trading atmosphere remained [7]. - PP Market: The price center of the PP market continued to move down. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 6,270 - 6,420 yuan/ton, 6,300 - 6,500 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,300 - 6,570 yuan/ton in South China [7]. 3. Data Overview - No specific data overview content is provided other than the source information. The data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][13][15][16]