芳烃橡胶早报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, in the short - term, the upward space is limited, but before the new device is put into production, the overall pattern remains unchanged. After the valuation callback, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [1]. - For MEG, the pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, with limited inventory pressure and relatively high start - up. It has a low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Market situation: The spot transaction average daily basis is 2605(-69). Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device are under maintenance. The start - up of the device has decreased month - on - month, the polyester load has decreased at an accelerated rate, the inventory has increased, the basis has weakened, and the spot processing fee has remained stable [1]. - PX situation: Domestic PX is under maintenance and the load has decreased, while the overseas load continues to increase. The PXN has decreased month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit has weakened, and the isomerization benefit remains high. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia is weak [1]. - Outlook: PX has high profits, domestic production remains high, and overseas start - up has rebounded. The de - stocking amplitude of the far - month contract has been revised down. TA's own processing fee is acceptable, and the inventory has increased during the pre - holiday polyester maintenance period [1]. MEG - Market situation: The basis is around 05(-109). Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device has increased its load. The domestic oil - based operation is stable, and the overall load has increased slightly driven by the increase in coal - based load. The port inventory has increased significantly at the beginning of the week, and the arrival forecast during the week remains high. The basis has strengthened month - on - month, and the coal - based benefit has remained stable [1]. - Outlook: Recently, the reduction in MEG mainly comes from the MTO part under the stable benefit of the mainstream process. The absolute amount and sustainability need further observation. The inventory is expected to continue to increase, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market situation: The spot price is around 6481, and the market basis is around 02 - 90. The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.6%, the production and sales have improved month - on - month, the inventory has increased slightly, and the spot processing fee has weakened month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has decreased, the raw material inventory has increased, the finished product inventory has decreased, and the benefit has improved month - on - month [1]. - Outlook: The downstream seasonality of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the start - up will remain relatively high. It has a low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Market situation: The prices of various rubber products have changed to different degrees. For example, the daily change of the price of mixed rubber is 10, and the weekly change is - 30. The price differences and processing profits between different types of rubber also show certain changes [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Market situation: The prices of styrene and related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and EPS have changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China has increased by 180 on a daily basis. The production profits of ABS, EPS, and PS have also changed [1].