《能源化工》日报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly, with a firm basis and a somewhat subdued overall negotiation. The inland supply remained high, traditional demand was weak, and there was short - term pressure. However, under the expectations of spring maintenance and new production capacity, the long - term pressure might ease. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the MTO demand was weak, suppressing the price rebound. The risk premium from the reduction in imported methanol arrivals was gradually fading, and the geopolitical factors still had an impact [1]. Polyolefins (L2605, PP2605) - For PE, the HD - LL spread narrowed, the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) was expected to increase, and demand entered the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. For PP, the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, but the balance improved compared to the previous period. The weighted profit was repaired, and the far - month futures offered PDH hedging profits [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply in northern Thailand and northern Vietnam was decreasing, and overseas raw material prices stopped falling and rose, strengthening cost support. The demand of some semi - steel tire enterprises with a large proportion of European exports was sufficient, but the overall inventory of enterprises increased, and domestic sales were slow. The inventory in China continued to accumulate. The rubber price was expected to oscillate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - The supply - demand of pure benzene improved marginally, but the absolute level of port inventory was still high, and its own driving force was limited. Styrene was strong due to export - driven inventory reduction and unexpected device shutdowns, which drove up the price of pure benzene. However, the spread between styrene and pure benzene was expected to have limited room for further expansion. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand was tight, there was an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space was limited [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the main contract SA605 fell for five consecutive trading days. The supply was at a high level, demand did not improve significantly, and the factory inventory was at a historically high level. The futures price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. For glass, the main contract FG605 fell. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was still high. The futures price was expected to continue the weakening trend in the short term [5]. Urea - Urea futures oscillated and closed up, and the spot price was generally stable. The supply was sufficient in the short term, and demand from both agriculture and industry increased. The inventory continued to decline, and the price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures fell weakly, and the spot market price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remained, with high inventory and weak demand, and the price was expected to continue to decline under pressure. For PVC, the futures opened low and moved lower, the supply was at a high level, and demand weakened before the festival. The price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but the cost support limited the downward space [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA was expected to weaken. For PTA, the supply - demand was expected to weaken in January, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For MEG, there was a large - scale inventory accumulation expectation, and the price was under pressure. For short - fiber, the supply - demand was weak, and it would follow raw material fluctuations. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply decreased, and it would follow cost - end fluctuations [8]. Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical risks eased to some extent, but the instability remained. The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave supported oil prices in the short term. However, the supply - demand expectation of crude oil was still weak, and the upward space of oil prices was limited. Brent crude oil was expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars/barrel [9]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose slightly. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory decreased. The upstream refinery开工率 increased slightly, while the downstream PDH开工率 decreased. The price trend was affected by supply - demand and external market factors [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2605 closed at 2209 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; MA2609 closed at 2232 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, down 21.05%. The port - inland regional spreads increased [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78% to 43.842 million tons, port inventory increased by 1.55% to 145.7 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.51% to 189.6 million tons [1]. - 开工率: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.23% to 77.91%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO装置开工率 decreased by 11.22% to 70.03% [1]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2605 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; PP2605 closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The L59 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 34 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.37% to 33.50 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.85% to 43.10 million tons [2]. - 开工率: The PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48% to 81.59%, and the PP装置开工率 increased by 0.20% to 75.62% [2]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: The price of whole - milk rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 730 yuan/ton, down 8.96% [3]. - Production and 开工率: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and the开工率 of automobile tires (semi - steel) increased by 7.55% to 73.44% [3]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory increased by 2.94% to 584897 tons [3]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Prices and Spreads: The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, up 2.7%. The price of styrene East China spot was 7470 yuan/ton, up 1.4% [4]. - Inventory: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 8.3% to 29.70 million tons, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 7.1% to 10.06 million tons [4]. - 开工率: The Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.9% to 77.0%, and the domestic styrene开工率 increased by 4.7% to 85.0% [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: The price of glass 2605 was 1039 yuan/ton, down 1.61%; the price of soda ash 2605 was 1163 yuan/ton, down 1.19% [5]. - Supply and Demand: The soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93% to 84.70%, and the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [5]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69% to 5551.80 million cases, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [5]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread of urea futures was - 29 yuan/ton, down 26.09% [6]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic urea daily production was 19.98 million tons, up 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.07% to 94.60 million tons [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: The price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was 1946.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC was 4500 yuan/ton, down 1.3% [7]. - Supply and Demand: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 0.3% to 89.1%, and the PVC total开工率 increased by 0.3% to 79.1% [7]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 3.2% to 22.6 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 5.3% to 31.1 million tons [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices and Spreads: The price of PTA East China spot was 5015 yuan/ton, up 1.4%. The price of MEG East China spot was 3601 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [8]. - Supply and Demand: The PX开工率 decreased by 1.7% to 89.4%, and the PTA开工率 decreased by 1.3% to 76.9% [8]. - Inventory: MEG port inventory decreased by 0.9% to 79.5 million tons [8]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent crude oil was 65.24 dollars/barrel, up 0.49%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread was 1.11 dollars/barrel, down 4.31% [9]. - Supply and Demand: The temporary shutdown of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan and the increase in fuel demand due to the Arctic cold wave affected the supply - demand situation [9]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The price of the main PG2603 contract was 4069 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The PG03 - 04 spread was - 277 yuan/ton, down 3.75% [11]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery inventory ratio decreased by 2.77% to 23.2%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 4.89% to 203 million tons [11]. - 开工率: The upstream main - refinery开工率 increased by 0.34% to 77.24%, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% to 73.1% [11].