集运早报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For the EC2604 contract, pay attention to the spot market and actual cargo rush situation. Spot price drops may suppress the futures market, but a larger post - Chinese New Year cargo rush due to lower freight may reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying at low prices during the spot market's bottom - finding process [3] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to short the EC2610 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downside [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.2, down 0.16%, with a basis of 249.2, trading volume of 778, and open interest of 5106, a decrease of 469 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1129.7, up 1.54%, with a basis of 826.7, trading volume of 22099, and open interest of 41299, a decrease of 512 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1378.0, up 4.60%, with a basis of 578.4, trading volume of 3489, and open interest of 4057, an increase of 130 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, up 1.24%, with a basis of 470.3, trading volume of 161, and open interest of 1347, a decrease of 4 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1074.7, up 2.07%, with a basis of 881.7, trading volume of 1473, and open interest of 8347, a decrease of 205 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The value was 597.4, compared to 577.5 the previous day and 582.1 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 19.9 and a week - on - week increase of 61.2 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The value was - 204.8, compared to - 248.3 the previous day and - 185.8 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 43.5 and a week - on - week decrease of 29.2 [2] Spot and Index Data - Spot (European route): As of 2026/1/12, the price was 1956.39, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European route): As of 2026/1/16, the price was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK opened at 2750 (up 100 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market [4] - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures market [4] - Week 6 of February: MSK opened at 2000/2100 (down 400 week - on - week), YML quoted at 2400 (special offer at 2000), and CMA quoted at 2600 dollars [4] Related News - On 1/5, CMA CGM decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [4]