原木期货日报-20260122

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the spot market, some specifications in Jiangsu are in short supply and prices have risen due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, demand remains weak and the upside is limited. Recently, the log futures price has declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short term, the price is expected to have some support, and trading within the range of 750 - 800 yuan can be considered. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 21, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 increased by 0.65%, 1.06%, 0.84%, and 0.70% respectively compared to January 20. The main contract basis decreased by 8 yuan. The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged. [1] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost remained basically unchanged on January 22 compared to January 21. [1] Supply - In December, the port freight volume increased by 7.82% compared to November, and the number of ships in the port increased by 12.24%. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports remained the same as last week, and the arrival volume decreased by 5% week - on - week. [1][2] Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2570000 cubic meters, a decrease of 120000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.04% and that in Jiangsu decreased by 15.18%. [1][2] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log出库 volume was 61600 cubic meters, an increase of 4100 cubic meters from the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong increased by 16%, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 3%. [2]