建信期货铁矿石日评-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of iron ore shows a marginally strengthening pattern. The supply from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil has declined for two consecutive weeks, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually decrease. The demand is still resilient with the total output of five major steel products rising slightly and the daily average hot metal output remaining at a relatively high level. Steel mills are in the pre - holiday stockpiling stage, which will support the iron ore price. Although the futures price has been falling due to news from BHP, the price is expected to rebound after the decline, but the upside space is limited due to high port inventories [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 21, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The main contracts of other steel and iron ore futures also showed different trends, such as RB2605 down 0.35%, HC2605 down 0.06%, and SS2603 up 2.40% [7][5] - In the spot market, on January 21, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0.8 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore in Qingdao Port decreased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has been expanding for two consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - Supply side: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil have declined for two consecutive weeks. The shipment volume last week decreased by 3.691 million tons to 21.641 million tons. The arrival volume decreased by 2.603 million tons to 26.597 million tons last week and is expected to gradually decline [10] - Demand side: The total output of five major steel products increased slightly again last week for three consecutive weeks. The daily average hot metal output decreased slightly to 2.2801 million tons after three consecutive weeks of growth, but it is still 0.035 million tons more than the same period last year, indicating resilient demand [11] - Inventory side: Steel mills have entered the pre - holiday stockpiling stage this week, and the inventory available days increased by 2 days to 21 days compared with last week. The stockpiling is expected to continue until one week before the Spring Festival, which will boost the iron ore price to some extent [11] - News: BHP's acceptance of lower prices in some iron ore transactions has led to a continuous decline in the futures price recently. However, considering the marginal improvement of the fundamentals, the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will support the price, and the price may rebound after the decline, but the high port inventories will limit the upside space [11] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said in Davos that he hopes to conduct another round of potential trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China and the US should implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state [12] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development Ni Hong said that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The real estate market will be stabilized, and the project company system, the lead - bank system, and the spot - sale system for commercial housing will be promoted [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties in Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract in Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port inventory and dispatch volume of iron ore, the cost of hot metal without tax of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][18][21]