原油成品油早报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Currently, Trump's stance is becoming more rational, but the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. From a fundamental perspective, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, and the total waterborne inventory is decreasing month - on - month but is higher year - on - year. The North Sea market in the spot market has tightened recently, while the Dubai market is loose, and the WTI and Brent markets are decoupling. In terms of refinery profits, European natural gas prices have skyrocketed, the European diesel crack spread has strengthened, and the overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the rising crude oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain high and volatile [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily News - Israeli media reported that Israel has raised its alert level due to concerns that the US may attack Iran in the near future [3]. - Trump said he hopes the US will not take further military action against Iran, but sanctions and tariff measures related to Iran will continue. He also mentioned the 2025 US air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the purchase of 25 B - 2 stealth bombers [3]. - Sources said that India's Reliance Industries plans to purchase Russian oil that complies with sanctions in February and March [3]. Inventory - In the week ending January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week ending January 9, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day [5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In the week ending January 9, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [5]. - In the week ending January 9, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending January 9 was 8.977 million barrels, with an expected value of 3.565 million barrels and a previous value of 7.702 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was - 29,000 barrels, with an expected value of 512,000 barrels and a previous value of 5.594 million barrels [5].