有色早报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week, and the market sentiment cooled. In the short - term, negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term as the fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly, and is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: The copper price pulled back in the second half of the week. The LME inventory increased by 3100, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2612 [1] - Market Analysis: US tariff issues and high inventories in the US triggered concerns. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the inventory may accumulate faster before the Spring Festival but decline quickly after the festival. The medium - term outlook is positive [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory: The aluminum price declined. The LME inventory increased by 24175, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [1] - Market Analysis: The basis and processing fees are low, and the inventory is accumulating. Domestic demand has short - term support from photovoltaic, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] Zinc - Price and Inventory: The zinc price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 450, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [2] - Market Analysis: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter operations, and demand is weak. The market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - Price and Inventory: The nickel price dropped. The LME inventory decreased by 72 [3] - Market Analysis: Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: The stainless steel price declined slightly. The inventory decreased slightly from a high level [3] - Market Analysis: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] Lead - Price and Inventory: The lead price oscillated at a high level. The inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 3.25 tons [5] - Market Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] Tin - Price and Inventory: The tin price fluctuated greatly. The LME inventory increased by 250 [8] - Market Analysis: The price is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The basis of different grades changed, and the warehouse receipts increased by 384 [11] - Market Analysis: Supply and demand are balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: The price fluctuated. The warehouse receipts increased by 975 [13] - Market Analysis: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]