广发期货日评-20260122

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is expected to enter a volatile trend after a continuous upward movement followed by a decline, with trading volume shrinking and market sentiment cooling. For the bond market, the short - term capital is relatively loose, and the long - end of the bond futures is strengthening, but there are still some resistance levels. The precious metals market is supported by macro - geopolitical events and shows a relatively strong trend. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the prices are oscillating. Other commodity markets also have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and market factors [2] Group 3: Summaries by Categories Financial Products - Stock Index Futures: A - shares have different trends such as a decline after a rally and a weak rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Bond Futures: The capital is stable and loose, and the long - end of bond futures is strengthening. It is advisable to temporarily watch on the unilateral strategy and not chase the high. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis [2] - Precious Metals: Gold can be bought at dips above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in risks. Silver is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to participate cautiously. Platinum can be bought at dips when it touches the 20 - day moving average, and an option straddle strategy can be used within a certain price range [2] Industrial Products - Steel and Iron: Steel has weak supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating. Iron ore supply is in the off - season and ports are accumulating inventory. For coking coal and coke, the market has over - anticipated, and they are expected to be in a downward - biased oscillation. For silicon - related products, the supply - demand situation is improving, and they are in a wide - range oscillation [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper prices are oscillating and inventories are accumulating. Aluminum products are affected by macro factors, and there are different trading strategies for different varieties. Zinc prices are oscillating and falling back, and tin is in a wide - range oscillation. Nickel is in an oscillating adjustment, and stainless steel is in a relatively strong oscillation [2] - New Energy: Industrial silicon futures are oscillating, polycrystalline silicon is in a weak - biased oscillation, and lithium carbonate is in a strong - biased operation [2] Energy and Chemical Products - Most products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. For example, PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is oscillating and following raw materials, and some products such as short - fiber and bottle - chip are also affected by supply - demand and raw material factors. Some products like ethylene glycol and pure benzene have specific trading strategies based on their inventory and supply - demand situations [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal has strong bottom support, palm oil may try to break through the annual resistance level, and products like sugar are in a weak - biased oscillation, while cotton needs to pay attention to the support level [2]