异动点评：成本端坚挺，带动BR强势反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 22, 2026, due to the strengthening of butadiene, the cost support for BR was strong, driving a strong rebound of BR. As of the time of publication, the main contract of synthetic rubber futures, BR2603, rose by more than 4% [1] - In the short - term, BR cost is strongly supported, but the operating rate and inventory of BR are both high, and butadiene is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation in February. Therefore, in the short - term, BR2603 may test the previous resistance level of 12,500 again. It is not recommended to short BR, and those who previously held long positions in BR2603 can choose to reduce positions and take profits around 12,500 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Cost - side Driving Factors - Short - term: The current supply - demand situation of butadiene is good. Affected by the previous maintenance of devices, the domestic butadiene operating rate declined in January until late January when domestic devices gradually restarted. The downstream operating rate is relatively high. The latest inventory at the East China port of butadiene this week is about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from last week. Due to tight domestic supply - demand and the expected decline in net imports, the price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. The production profit of BR has changed from profit to loss, indicating strong cost support for BR [3] - Medium - term: There will be no new butadiene devices put into production in the first half of the year, but there is an expectation of new devices being put into production in the downstream industry in the second quarter. There will be a mismatch between production and supply - demand in the butadiene industry chain, and the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season for Northeast Asian ethylene, so the supply - demand of butadiene will be tight in the second quarter [3] Demand - side Driving Factors - The EU will not implement temporary anti - dumping measures, reducing the export pressure on Chinese tires. The overall orders of tire enterprises in January improved compared with last month. The cancellation of the planned anti - dumping tax on Chinese - made PCR by the EU on January 21, 2026 is beneficial to the export of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises. The orders for semi - steel tire exports to the EU improved significantly compared with last month. Coupled with the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period at home and abroad, the overall orders are relatively sufficient, which supports the production scheduling of tire enterprises in January [8] Market Outlook - Cost side: The high inventory of butadiene at ports in the short - term has been alleviated, with weak import and strong export expectations. The price of butadiene is likely to rise and difficult to fall. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream operating rate will decline, and many domestic butadiene devices restarted in late January. It is expected that butadiene will enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, suppressing the upward space of butadiene prices [10] - Supply side: As butadiene strengthens, the production of BR has changed from profit to loss. However, since the futures market is stronger than the spot market, the supply is expected to decline slowly, and the inventory of BR will remain at a high level in the short term [10] - Demand side: The orders of tire enterprises were sufficient in January, and it is expected that Chinese tires will still rush to export to the EU from January to March. BR is still much cheaper than natural rubber, maintaining high cost - effectiveness. Therefore, the demand for BR is expected to improve in the first quarter [10]